Derek Chauvin's trial began today. He is facing the following charges:
* Second-degree murder
* Third-degree murder
* Second-degree manslaughter

Any predictions?

I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

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Hello Jeff,

Derek Chauvin's trial began today. He is facing the following charges:
* Second-degree murder
* Third-degree murder
* Second-degree manslaughter

Any predictions?

Chauvin will remain retired from the police force.

I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

That is not a gimme. Johnnie Cochran is no longer around. And
neither are several of the other attorneys who kept OJ out of jail.

"If the knee doesn't fit, you must acquit!"
~Lee Lofaso, lead counsel for the Dream Team

--Lee

--
There's no split in Cremo.

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Chauvin Trial Predictions
|--------------------------------------|
| User | M2 | M3 | m2 | j | |--------------------------------------|
| Jeff Thiele | N | N | N | Y |
| Lee Lofaso | ? | ? | ? | Y | |--------------------------------------|

* M2 = Second-degree murder conviction
* M3 = Third-degree murder conviction
* m2 = Second-degree manslaughter conviction
* j = Will remain retired

On 29 Mar 2021, Lee Lofaso said the following...

Derek Chauvin's trial began today. He is facing the following charges * Second-degree murder
* Third-degree murder
* Second-degree manslaughter

Any predictions?

Chauvin will remain retired from the police force.

I think so, too.

I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

That is not a gimme. Johnnie Cochran is no longer around. And
neither are several of the other attorneys who kept OJ out of jail.

True. But I think that this is more akin to Rodney King than OJ. It should
also be noted that what I think *should* happen and what I think *will*
happen are two different things.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Hello Jeff,

Chauvin Trial Predictions
|--------------------------------------|
| User | M2 | M3 | m2 | j | |--------------------------------------|
| Jeff Thiele | N | N | N | Y |
| Lee Lofaso | ? | ? | ? | Y | |--------------------------------------|

* M2 = Second-degree murder conviction
* M3 = Third-degree murder conviction
* m2 = Second-degree manslaughter conviction
* j = Will remain retired

All it takes is one conviction to have him put away.
Too bad Donald Trump is no longer in office. So there
is no saving him now ...

Derek Chauvin's trial began today. He is facing the following

charges

* Second-degree murder
* Third-degree murder
* Second-degree manslaughter

Any predictions?

Chauvin will remain retired from the police force.

I think so, too.

Of course, there is always the possibility, however slim, that
Donald Trump returns as president. In which case, if you want to
keep your neck and head intact, best to leave Town USA.

I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

That is not a gimme. Johnnie Cochran is no longer around. And
neither are several of the other attorneys who kept OJ out of jail.

True. But I think that this is more akin to Rodney King than OJ. It should also be noted that what I think *should* happen and what I think *will* happen are two different things.

At least the riots will not be in LA this time ...

--Lee

--
Make 7-Up Yours

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I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

I bet you're right. He can argue that he acted in accordance with department policy, which is probably a policy worth modifying.

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Derek Chauvin's trial began today. He is facing the following charges:
* Second-degree murder
* Third-degree murder
* Second-degree manslaughter

Any predictions?

I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

I am curious. Here, you can only be charged with one of those three, I
think. They have to choose which one they think will be most likely to get
a conviction and go with that one. The only way they could try you for all three was if three people were killed. If they find you not guilty on
the one they choose, they cannot try you for the same crime again.

So, does MN allow trying people for three different types of "death"
charges when only one person died? Can he be found guilty of all three
even though there is only one death?


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On 29 Mar 2021, Aaron Thomas said the following...

I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

I bet you're right. He can argue that he acted in accordance with department policy, which is probably a policy worth modifying.

Ok, I'll take that as a "no" on any conviction, and a non-commitment on
whether he stays retired from the police force (because I don't want to put words in your mouth).

This is just for fun, though; you can change your prediction at any time.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
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On 30 Mar 2021, Mike Powell said the following...

I predict he'll be acquitted on all counts.

I am curious. Here, you can only be charged with one of those three, I think. They have to choose which one they think will be most likely to get a conviction and go with that one. The only way they could try you for all three was if three people were killed. If they find you not guilty on the one they choose, they cannot try you for the same crime again.

I have no idea; that's a good point. I'm only going on what the news says. If
I had to guess, I'd say maybe all three are on the table, but he can only be convicted of one, max.

However, you can change your prediction at any time.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Here's the current state of predictions. You can change them at any time, and you don't have to explain why you make a particular prediction (although you certainly can if you wish).

Chauvin Trial Predictions
|--------------------------------------|
| User | M2 | M3 | m2 | j | |--------------------------------------|
| Jeff Thiele | N | N | N | Y |
| Lee Lofaso | ? | ? | ? | Y |
| Aaron Thomas | N | N | N | ? | |--------------------------------------|

* M2 = Second-degree murder conviction
* M3 = Third-degree murder conviction
* m2 = Second-degree manslaughter conviction
* j = Will remain retired

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

On 30 Mar 2021, Lee Lofaso said the following...

Derek Chauvin's trial began today. He is facing the following

charges

* Second-degree murder
* Third-degree murder
* Second-degree manslaughter

Any predictions?

True. But I think that this is more akin to Rodney King than OJ. It s also be noted that what I think *should* happen and what I think *wil happen are two different things.

At least the riots will not be in LA this time ...

Hmm, I don't know... The reactions to the killings of Michael Brown and
George Floyd were definitely localized in the communities where they
happened, but there were also reactions across the country.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Hello Jeff,

Here's the current state of predictions. You can change them at any time, and
you don't have to explain why you make a particular prediction (although you
certainly can if you wish).

Chauvin Trial Predictions
|--------------------------------------|
| User | M2 | M3 | m2 | j | |--------------------------------------|
| Jeff Thiele | N | N | N | Y |
| Lee Lofaso | ? | ? | ? | Y |
| Aaron Thomas | N | N | N | ? | |--------------------------------------|

* M2 = Second-degree murder conviction
* M3 = Third-degree murder conviction
* m2 = Second-degree manslaughter conviction
* j = Will remain retired

m2, maybe. overturned on appeal.

--Lee

--
Not my president!

--- MesNews/1.08.05.00-gb
* Origin: news://eljaco.se (2:203/2)

Hello Jeff,

Derek Chauvin's trial began today. He is facing the following

charges

* Second-degree murder
* Third-degree murder
* Second-degree manslaughter

Any predictions?

True. But I think that this is more akin to Rodney King than OJ.

It s

also be noted that what I think *should* happen and what I think

*wil

happen are two different things.

At least the riots will not be in LA this time ...

Hmm, I don't know... The reactions to the killings of Michael Brown and George Floyd were definitely localized in the communities where they happened, but there were also reactions across the country.

But nobody burned the whole town down.

--Lee

--
There's no split in Cremo.

--- MesNews/1.08.05.00-gb
* Origin: news://eljaco.se (2:203/2)

Here's the current state of predictions. You can change them at any time, and you don't have to explain why you make a particular prediction (although you certainly can if you wish).

I think they will find him guilty of something... I think there has been
some evidence come out so far during the trial that was not in the press before. However, with them trying to get him on a "pick one of three"
deal, it is possible that the confusion over which one he is guilty of will cause the jury trouble.


* SLMR 2.1a * Sorry, the Dog ate my Blue Wave packet.
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

On 01 Apr 2021, Lee Lofaso said the following...

At least the riots will not be in LA this time ...

Hmm, I don't know... The reactions to the killings of Michael Brown a George Floyd were definitely localized in the communities where they happened, but there were also reactions across the country.

But nobody burned the whole town down.

Well, true.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

On 31 Mar 2021, Mike Powell said the following...

I think they will find him guilty of something... I think there has been some evidence come out so far during the trial that was not in the press before. However, with them trying to get him on a "pick one of three" deal, it is possible that the confusion over which one he is guilty of will cause the jury trouble.

Yeah, that does seem unnecessarily confusing, but maybe the intention is to give the jury some leeway? I could definitely see it complicating the deliberations, though.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Here's the current state of predictions. You can change them at any time, and you don't have to explain why you make a particular prediction (although you certainly can if you wish).

Chauvin Trial Predictions
|--------------------------------------|
| User | M2 | M3 | m2 | j | |--------------------------------------|
| Jeff Thiele | N | N | N | Y |
| Lee Lofaso | N | N | O? | Y |
| Aaron Thomas | N | N | N | ? |
| Mike Powell | ( 1 of 3 ) | ? | |--------------------------------------|

* M2 = Second-degree murder conviction
* M3 = Third-degree murder conviction
* m2 = Second-degree manslaughter conviction
* j = Will remain retired

* N = acquitted
* Y = convicted
* O = convicted, but overturned on appeal
* ? = no prediction or tentative prediction

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

On 03-31-21 13:25, Mike Powell <=-
spoke to Jeff Thiele about Re: Chauvin trial <=-

I think they will find him guilty of something... I think there has

That should be true, and I hope that it is true.

been some evidence come out so far during the trial that was not in the press before. However, with them trying to get him on a "pick one of three" deal, it is possible that the confusion over which one he is
guilty of will cause the jury trouble.

The fact that there are three charges is not a big deal. The jury votes
on the most severe charge (2nd Degree) and if unanimous, that is all
there is. If they cannot get 100%, they move down the line until
everyone agrees. The differences between the three charges are legal
criteria, not understood completely by me, but the judge will make the differences clear to the jury when he gives them their charge.

Dale Shipp
fido_261_1466 (at) verizon (dot) net
(1:261/1466)



... Shipwrecked in Silver Spring, Maryland. 01:49:04, 01 Apr 2021
___ Blue Wave/DOS v2.30

--- Maximus/NT 3.01
* Origin: Owl's Anchor (1:261/1466)

On 01 Apr 2021, Dale Shipp said the following...

I think they will find him guilty of something... I think there has

That should be true, and I hope that it is true.

Can I count that as a prediction?

The fact that there are three charges is not a big deal. The jury votes on the most severe charge (2nd Degree) and if unanimous, that is all
there is. If they cannot get 100%, they move down the line until
everyone agrees. The differences between the three charges are legal criteria, not understood completely by me, but the judge will make the differences clear to the jury when he gives them their charge.

That makes sense. Thanks for clarifying!

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Hello Jeff,

I think they will find him guilty of something... I think there has

been

some evidence come out so far during the trial that was not in the

press

before. However, with them trying to get him on a "pick one of

three"

deal, it is possible that the confusion over which one he is guilty

of

will cause the jury trouble.

Yeah, that does seem unnecessarily confusing, but maybe the intention is to
give the jury some leeway? I could definitely see it complicating the deliberations, though.

OJ was found not guilty on all counts, by a jury of his peers.
And he said he is still searcing for those mysterious Mexicans who
killed his ex-wife and boyfriend. Just to show those nay-sayers
that he truly is innocent.

Even though he is still a lousy golf player. Better than Trump,
who is too chicken to play on the same golf course ...

--Lee

--
Pay your taxes!

--- MesNews/1.08.05.00-gb
* Origin: news://eljaco.se (2:203/2)

Here's the current state of predictions. You can change them at any time, and you don't have to explain why you make a particular prediction (although you certainly can if you wish).

I don't think anyone in their right mind will hire him as a cop again. He might work as a rent-a-cop somewhere where the people have their heads in
the sand.

I still think they will find him guilty of something, but his "long time friend" claiming he will take the 5th (so as not to purjure himself)
doesn't look good. Jury won't know that unless the defense calls him
anyway and forces him to plead the 5th in court.


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On 01 Apr 2021, Mike Powell said the following...

I don't think anyone in their right mind will hire him as a cop again.
He might work as a rent-a-cop somewhere where the people have their
heads in the sand.

Noted. I'll update the chart.

I still think they will find him guilty of something, but his "long time friend" claiming he will take the 5th (so as not to purjure himself) doesn't look good. Jury won't know that unless the defense calls him anyway and forces him to plead the 5th in court.

Good point about the jury, I didn't think about that. I just wonder what the friend is afraid of. Is it perjury? Typically the 5th is claimed to avoid incriminating oneself, so if he's afraid of perjury now, then maybe he lied earlier and doesn't want to lie again?

I think it's something else, like maybe he's the one who gave Floyd the phony 20, or they worked on counterfeiting together or something. The friend didn't do anything that day warranting arrest, at least not in view of the cops.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Here's the current state of predictions. You can change them at any time, and you don't have to explain why you make a particular prediction (although you certainly can if you wish).

Chauvin Trial Predictions
|--------------------------------------|
| User | M2 | M3 | m2 | j | |--------------------------------------|
| Jeff Thiele | N | N | N | Y |
| Lee Lofaso | N | N | O? | Y |
| Aaron Thomas | N | N | N | ? |
| Mike Powell | ( 1 of 3 ) | Y | |--------------------------------------|

* M2 = Second-degree murder conviction
* M3 = Third-degree murder conviction
* m2 = Second-degree manslaughter conviction
* j = Will remain retired

* N = acquitted
* Y = convicted
* O = convicted, but overturned on appeal
* ? = no prediction or tentative prediction

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

On 04-01-21 08:42, Jeff Thiele <=-
spoke to Dale Shipp about Re: Chauvin trial <=-

I think they will find him guilty of something... I think there has

That should be true, and I hope that it is true.

Can I count that as a prediction?

Nope -- I learned a good while ago not to deal in predictions or
speculations. I deal in facts. I have opinions, but don't make
predictions based on my opinions.

The fact that there are three charges is not a big deal. The jury votes on the most severe charge (2nd Degree) and if unanimous, that is all
there is. If they cannot get 100%, they move down the line until
everyone agrees. The differences between the three charges are legal criteria, not understood completely by me, but the judge will make the differences clear to the jury when he gives them their charge.

That makes sense. Thanks for clarifying!

Also, if the jury could not decide on 2nd degree murder and if that was
the only charge, then they would either get hung jury or not guilty.
With those other charges there, they can convict on a lessor charge.

Dale Shipp
fido_261_1466 (at) verizon (dot) net
(1:261/1466)


... Shipwrecked in Silver Spring, Maryland. 00:52:36, 02 Apr 2021
___ Blue Wave/DOS v2.30

--- Maximus/NT 3.01
* Origin: Owl's Anchor (1:261/1466)

On 02 Apr 2021, Dale Shipp said the following...

Can I count that as a prediction?

Nope -- I learned a good while ago not to deal in predictions or speculations. I deal in facts. I have opinions, but don't make predictions based on my opinions.

No worries, it's all in good fun. I think that making predictions causes
people to think a little bit more about the subject of the prediction than
they normally would, and explore the differences between what they would like to see happen and what they think will realistically happen.

Also, if the jury could not decide on 2nd degree murder and if that was the only charge, then they would either get hung jury or not guilty.
With those other charges there, they can convict on a lessor charge.

That makes sense, too.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

I still think they will find him guilty of something, but his "long time friend" claiming he will take the 5th (so as not to purjure himself) doesn't look good. Jury won't know that unless the defense calls him anyway and forces him to plead the 5th in court.

Good point about the jury, I didn't think about that. I just wonder what the friend is afraid of. Is it perjury? Typically the 5th is claimed to avoid incriminating oneself, so if he's afraid of perjury now, then maybe he lied earlier and doesn't want to lie again?

I think it's something else, like maybe he's the one who gave Floyd the phony 20, or they worked on counterfeiting together or something. The friend didn't do anything that day warranting arrest, at least not in view of the cops.

The purjury is an assumption on my part. Some of the things the kid from
the shop said seem to contradict past statements the friend made to the press. But the official reason is not to incriminate himself.

The reason I think he could get manslaughter stems from the EMT not being allowed to render aid. I have not been watching the whole trial, because I work, but the parts I have been seeing on the news make me feel like the
only way he gets a murder conviction is from the emotions of it, or the fear
of being doxed as a juror and attacked by "peaceful protest" rioters if
they don't.


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* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

Also, if the jury could not decide on 2nd degree murder and if that was
the only charge, then they would either get hung jury or not guilty.
With those other charges there, they can convict on a lessor charge.

In some states, they have to pick one or the other, i.e. you can only be charged with one murder/manslaughter charge per each victim. I *think*
they may have preliminary hearings to determine which charge they go with
based on what evidence they have, i.e. if they don't think they can convict
on murder, they will reduce the charge to manslaughter.

I think that is what is confusing some of us who live in such places.


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On 02 Apr 2021, Mike Powell said the following...

The reason I think he could get manslaughter stems from the EMT not being allowed to render aid. I have not been watching the whole trial,
because I work, but the parts I have been seeing on the news make me
feel like the only way he gets a murder conviction is from the emotions
of it, or the fear of being doxed as a juror and attacked by "peaceful protest" rioters if they don't.

I haven't been watching it, either, but have also been casually watching it
on the news. I could see pressure being put on the lone holdout preventing a conviction, but I think the part about getting attacked by rioters is a
little hyperbolic.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)