Is anyone here active on any prediction markets such as predictit.org?

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Hello Jeff,

Is anyone here active on any prediction markets such as predictit.org?

Nah. I've got *all* the prophecies of Nostradamus.
The only prophet with a perfect record.

--Lee

--
Nobody Beats Our Meat

--- MesNews/1.08.05.00-gb
* Origin: news://eljaco.se (2:203/2)

On 02 Apr 2021, Lee Lofaso said the following...

Is anyone here active on any prediction markets such as predictit.org

Nah. I've got *all* the prophecies of Nostradamus.
The only prophet with a perfect record.

Far from the accuracy of Nostradamus, I'm currently down $0.08 on investments totalling $14.00. The main reasons for my losses are Matt Gaetz and Lara
Trump, but if Gaetz could just hold off resigning until May 1, I stand to make a tidy profit of about $0.70.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

I have invested real money in the following positions:
Lara Trump in 2022 GOP Sen. Primary? (No)
Votes for Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen.? (Not 50)
Who will control the Senate after 2022? (Democrats)
Which party will win the House in 2022? (Republicans)
Democratic 2024 presidential nominee? (Kamala Harris)
GOP 2024 presidential nominee? (Not Trump)
Don Jr runs in 2022 PA GOP Sen. primary? (No)
Greene re-elected to the House in 2022? (Yes)
Sanders wins 2022 AR GOP Gov. primary? (No)
Trump files for President before 2022? (No)
Will Cuomo be impeached before 9/1? (No)
Cuomo in office at the end of the year? (Yes)
Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1? (Yes)

Come join the fun! Shares for positions are valued between $0.00 and $1.00 (non-inclusive), which conveniently translates to the value of a particular share being the probability that the given event will happen, as decided by investors like you and me but complicated by traders trying to predict short-term shifts in the conventional wisdom (The Gaetz one seems to be particularly prone to that right now). However, the restricted price range
also means you can have a bit of fun with 10 or 20 bucks.

https://predictit.org (I have no affiliation with them except as an investor.)

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

On 02 Apr 2021, Jeff Thiele said the following...

I have invested real money in the following positions:
Lara Trump in 2022 GOP Sen. Primary? (No)
Votes for Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen.? (Not 50)
Who will control the Senate after 2022? (Democrats)
Which party will win the House in 2022? (Republicans)
Democratic 2024 presidential nominee? (Kamala Harris)
GOP 2024 presidential nominee? (Not Trump)
Don Jr runs in 2022 PA GOP Sen. primary? (No)
Greene re-elected to the House in 2022? (Yes)
Sanders wins 2022 AR GOP Gov. primary? (No)
Trump files for President before 2022? (No)
Will Cuomo be impeached before 9/1? (No)
Cuomo in office at the end of the year? (Yes)
Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1? (Yes)

Come join the fun! Shares for positions are valued between $0.00 and
$1.00 (non-inclusive), which conveniently translates to the value of a particular share being the probability that the given event will happen, as decided by investors like you and me but complicated by traders
trying to predict short-term shifts in the conventional wisdom (The
Gaetz one seems to be particularly prone to that right now). However,
the restricted price range also means you can have a bit of fun with 10
or 20 bucks.

https://predictit.org (I have no affiliation with them except as an investor.)

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

r

In 2020 I predicted that the winners of the election would be
Police, Military, Big Pharma, and Mega-Corporations.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Windows/32)
* Origin: Shadowscope BBS | bbs.shadowscope.com | Temple, GA (1:3634/24)

On 03 Apr 2021, Kevin Koch said the following...

In 2020 I predicted that the winners of the election would be
Police, Military, Big Pharma, and Mega-Corporations.

That's a safe bet if I ever heard one... ;-)

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

GOP 2024 presidential nominee? (Not Trump)

I'm with you on this. The GOP is no match for the TDS. Our candidate needs to be a black islamic gay female if we even want to send the old cracker packin.

Cuomo in office at the end of the year? (Yes)

No problem. All the terrible stuff he did to residents happened after his 2018 election. 2023 is going to be very unforgiving with him.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Linux/64)
* Origin: CompuBBS | Ashburn VA | cfbbs.scinet-ftn.org (1:275/99)

In 2020 I predicted that the winners of the election would be
Police, Military, Big Pharma, and Mega-Corporations.

50% correct is not bad.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Linux/64)
* Origin: CompuBBS | Ashburn VA | cfbbs.scinet-ftn.org (1:275/99)

On 04 Apr 2021, Aaron Thomas said the following...

GOP 2024 presidential nominee? (Not Trump)

I'm with you on this. The GOP is no match for the TDS. Our candidate
needs to be a black islamic gay female if we even want to send the old cracker packin.

My thinking was that although Trump talks big, he hasn't put his money where his mouth is. In 2017, he filed for the 2020 nomination the day after he was inaugurated. I just don't see the same motivation this time around.

Cuomo in office at the end of the year? (Yes)

No problem. All the terrible stuff he did to residents happened after
his 2018 election. 2023 is going to be very unforgiving with him.

I'm not saying he does (or doesn't) deserve to be in office. The question at hand is whether he will be in office at midnight on Dec. 31, 2021.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

On 04 Apr 2021, Aaron Thomas said the following...

Cuomo in office at the end of the year? (Yes)

No problem. All the terrible stuff he did to residents happened after
his 2018 election. 2023 is going to be very unforgiving with him.

I just checked and apparently I'm no longer invested in this one. I had a standing order to sell at $0.20 more per share than I bought it for, and it
got triggered. It's currently priced at $0.59 for a Yes share and $0.41 for a No share. Public opinion seems to be that there's a 59/41 chance of him being in office at the end of the year, so come put in your $0.02 (err... $0.41)!

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

My thinking was that although Trump talks big, he hasn't put his money where his mouth is. In 2017, he filed for the 2020 nomination the day after he was inaugurated. I just don't see the same motivation this time around.

I feel like he phoned-in the 2020 election. He didn't try hard enough like
last time. The debates with Biden went ok, but he didn't get the opportunity
to crush Biden like he did with Hillary in the 2016 debates. I think all the support he had paired with all of Biden's flaws went to his head and he
thought he could win on autopilot.

I'm hoping for a 2 term Republican president who will do something handout-ish for the liberal community. An offer they can't refuse, in exchange for letting him/her repair our severely damaged (by Biden) country.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Linux/64)
* Origin: CompuBBS | Ashburn VA | cfbbs.scinet-ftn.org (1:275/99)

On 04 Apr 2021, Aaron Thomas said the following...

My thinking was that although Trump talks big, he hasn't put his mone where his mouth is. In 2017, he filed for the 2020 nomination the day after he was inaugurated. I just don't see the same motivation this t around.

I feel like he phoned-in the 2020 election. He didn't try hard enough
like last time. The debates with Biden went ok, but he didn't get the opportunity to crush Biden like he did with Hillary in the 2016 debates.
I think all the support he had paired with all of Biden's flaws went to his head and he thought he could win on autopilot.

Do you think Trump has analyzed his performance in the 2020 election and come to the same conclusion? I think that if he had, and if he did intend to run
in 2024, he would be on it by now.

I'm hoping for a 2 term Republican president who will do something handout-ish for the liberal community. An offer they can't refuse, in exchange for letting him/her repair our severely damaged (by Biden) country.

Biden fulfills the same hope for liberals.

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)

Hello Jeff,

I have invested real money in the following positions:

Uh-oh.

Lara Trump in 2022 GOP Sen. Primary? (No)

If she runs, and loses, it will mean the end of Trump's
campaign for president.

Votes for Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen.? (Not 50)

The Senate will vote to confirm Biden's nomination.

Who will control the Senate after 2022? (Democrats)

With, or without help from Kamala in her role as president
of the Senate? That is the question.

Which party will win the House in 2022? (Republicans)

That is far from a sure bet.

Democratic 2024 presidential nominee? (Kamala Harris)

Far from a sure bet. Especially if Biden remains healthy,
as well as popular.

GOP 2024 presidential nominee? (Not Trump)

Only works if no other serious contender emerges.

Don Jr runs in 2022 PA GOP Sen. primary? (No)

He is a lightweight. A wannabe, yes. But still a lightweight.
A real embarrassment. For his father, his brother, his sisters,
his sister-in-law, and a true delight for his cousin.

Greene re-elected to the House in 2022? (Yes)

Likely to be thrown out before her first and only term ends.

Sanders wins 2022 AR GOP Gov. primary? (No)

She is well ahead, and all other candidates far behind.
I mean, you are talking redneck country. The same people
who gave us Bill Clinton.

Trump files for President before 2022? (No)

Trump pleads "not guilty" in his tax trials due to bankruptcy.
He will never be able to live that down.

Will Cuomo be impeached before 9/1? (No)

Huey P. Long was impeached. But not removed from office.

Cuomo in office at the end of the year? (Yes)

Only because his doctor is a lousy shot (unlike Long's doctor).

Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1? (Yes)

Only because he failed to get his girlfriends to sing a non-disclosure agreement.

Come join the fun! Shares for positions are valued between $0.00 and $1.00 >(non-inclusive), which conveniently translates to the value of a particular >share being the probability that the given event will happen, as decided by >investors like you and me but complicated by traders trying to predict >short-term shifts in the conventional wisdom (The Gaetz one seems to be >particularly prone to that right now). However, the restricted price range >also means you can have a bit of fun with 10 or 20 bucks.

https://predictit.org (I have no affiliation with them except as an
investor.)

You'll be lucky to escape with a single $1. And I mean lucky.
And you know what that means. Gotta wear green. To show you are
truly lucky.

--Lee

--
Whose streets? / Our streets!

--- MesNews/1.08.05.00-gb
* Origin: nntp://rbb.fidonet.fi - Lake Ylo - Finland (2:221/360.0)

On 07 Apr 2021, Lee Lofaso said the following...

I have invested real money in the following positions:

Uh-oh.

I find that putting money where my mouth is forces me to think more carefully about my positions.

Lara Trump in 2022 GOP Sen. Primary? (No)

If she runs, and loses, it will mean the end of Trump's
campaign for president.

True, but I also don't think there will be a Trump 2024 campaign.

Votes for Gupta as Assoc. Attorney Gen.? (Not 50)

The Senate will vote to confirm Biden's nomination.

I believe so, yes, but the bet here is that the votes will not be split 50/50 (not counting the VP vote).

Who will control the Senate after 2022? (Democrats)

With, or without help from Kamala in her role as president
of the Senate? That is the question.

That doesn't matter; either one is a win for me.

Which party will win the House in 2022? (Republicans)

That is far from a sure bet.

True. But I'm pessimistic on this one.

Democratic 2024 presidential nominee? (Kamala Harris)

Far from a sure bet. Especially if Biden remains healthy,
as well as popular.

Yeah, that's a difficult one. I'm betting that either something happens to Biden or he just doesn't have another term in him.

GOP 2024 presidential nominee? (Not Trump)

Only works if no other serious contender emerges.

Or Trump doesn't run. Despite all of his bluster about being cheated out of
the election, he hasn't declared for 2024 yet. In 2017, he registered for
2020 the day after his inauguration.

Don Jr runs in 2022 PA GOP Sen. primary? (No)

He is a lightweight. A wannabe, yes. But still a lightweight.
A real embarrassment. For his father, his brother, his sisters,
his sister-in-law, and a true delight for his cousin.

Yep.

Greene re-elected to the House in 2022? (Yes)

Likely to be thrown out before her first and only term ends.

That's a possibility, but she's from a very Republican district and has quite
a following among the Trumpers. If she can keep her Twitter-finger under control, I think she might find redemption.

Sanders wins 2022 AR GOP Gov. primary? (No)

She is well ahead, and all other candidates far behind.
I mean, you are talking redneck country. The same people
who gave us Bill Clinton.

True, but she has a lot of baggage from her tenure as Press Secretary.

Trump files for President before 2022? (No)

Trump pleads "not guilty" in his tax trials due to bankruptcy.
He will never be able to live that down.

I just don't think he has it in him. He is raising money on the *possibility* that he'll run, but that's the low-hanging fruit; he doesn't really have to *do* anything. I do hope he gets his derierre handed to him in court, though.

Will Cuomo be impeached before 9/1? (No)

Huey P. Long was impeached. But not removed from office.

"This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that the New York State Assembly, by simple majority, votes to impeach Governor Andrew Cuomo before
the End Date listed below. Mr. Cuomo does not need to be tried, convicted or removed from office in order for this market to resolve as Yes."

Cuomo in office at the end of the year? (Yes)

Only because his doctor is a lousy shot (unlike Long's doctor).

Heh.

Will Matt Gaetz resign before May 1? (Yes)

Only because he failed to get his girlfriends to sing a non-disclosure agreement.

This one... This one is all over the place. I'm riding this one more as a way to pick up a few pennies on changes in public opinion. I don't really think he'll resign by May 1.

You'll be lucky to escape with a single $1. And I mean lucky.
And you know what that means. Gotta wear green. To show you are
truly lucky.

I'm not doing too bad so far. Somebody's gotta win, and somebody's gotta
lose, you know?

Jeff.

"For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong." -- H. L. Mencken, who indeed was a racist thereby proving himself right.

--- Mystic BBS v1.12 A46 2020/08/26 (Raspberry Pi/32)
* Origin: Cold War Computing BBS (1:387/26)