SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP40
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 40 ARLP040
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 2, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP040
ARLP040 Propagation de K7RA

Solar wind disturbed HF conditions this past week, September 24-30.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 5.1 to 22, while average
middle latitude A index went from 5 to 15.6. Average daily sunspot
number declined from 1.9 to 1.6; a weak sunspot only appeared on two
dates, September 23 and 25, with sunspot numbers of 13 and 11,
respectively.

Average daily solar flux was on the increase, edging up from 71.1 to
73.4.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 73 on October 2-4, 70
on October 5-18, 72 on October 19-31, 70 on November 1-14 and 72 on
November 15.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 8 on October 2-3, 5 on October
4-10, 10 on October 11, 5 on October 12-19, then 10, 18 and 20 on
October 20-22, then 24, 16, 38 and 38 on October 23-26, then 26, 15
and 10 on October 27-29, 5 on October 30 thru November 6, 10 on
November 7, and 5 on November 8-15.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period October 1-27, 2020 from
OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: October 6-7
quiet to unsettled on: October 5, 13-16
quiet to active on: October 1-2, (3-4, 8- 9, 12, 17,) 18-19
unsettled to active: October 10-11, 20, 22, (24,) 27
active to disturbed: October 21, 23, (25-26)

"Solar wind will intensify on: October 1-3, 13-14, (15, 20-25,)
26-27.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Here is an article about the European Space Agency Solar Orbiter:

https://bit.ly/2GxUX8P

Southgate Amateur Radio has a 10 meter report:

https://bit.ly/34gkTOK

W6MVT in Southern California was pleasantly surprised after erecting
a new vertical. His first catch was E51JD from the South Cook
Islands on 28 September at 0022 UTC. This was his first SSB DX on 15
meters in many years, though the opening vanished as quickly as it
came.

Jeff, N8II reported last Saturday, September 26:

"Solar storm today, early about 1400-1500Z skip was shorter than
normal (NJ and NC on 40) and W9-land on 20 along with a few ME/NB
stations (Maine QSO Party this weekend), but after a good run of 5s,
6s, 7s, and 0s on 20 SSB this afternoon the condx are very poor as
of 2015Z. The storm is in full force."

Ken, N4SO shared this from the Alabama Gulf Coast:

"A wealth of information is available from the following:

"http://www.reversebeacon.net/beacons/beacons_ncdxf.php

"Also, one more Beacon on 21.150 MHZ is heard to add to LU4AA, OA4B,
YV5B.

"W6WX is often heard at this location near 2300-0000 UTC. His
signals are strong enough to hear at 100 watts and 10 watts."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for September 24 through 30, 2020 were 0, 11, 0, 0,
0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 73.4, 72.6,
74.1, 73.9, 72.8, and 73.3, with a mean of 73.4. Estimated planetary
A indices were 19, 20, 27, 24, 33, 16, and 15, with a mean of 22.
Middle latitude A index was 11, 17, 18, 16, 21, 14, and 12, with a
mean of 15.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP42
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 42 ARLP042
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 16, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP042
ARLP042 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots returned for a few days, on October 9-12, with sunspot
numbers of 24, 26, 15 and 15, respectively. No sunspot appeared on
the next day, but late on Wednesday Spaceweather.com reported a new
emerging Solar Cycle 25 spot on our Sun's southeastern limb, and a
daily sunspot number of 12. NOAA Space Environment Center did not
report this, instead reporting the sunspot number at 0.

But the next day the record was corrected and NOAA reported sunspot
numbers of 12 and 14 on October 14-15.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 0 to 13.1, while average
daily solar flux went from 71.8 to 73.1.

Geomagnetic indicators were lower, with planetary A index dropping
from 7.1 to 2.7 and middle latitude A index from 6 to 1.9.

Prior to October 9 there were no sunspots for two weeks, and at that
time a sunspot number of 13 on September 23 and 11 on September 25.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 74 on October 16-17, 72
on October 18-31, 70 on November 1-7, 73 on November 8-10, then 72,
71 and 71 on November 11-13, 70 on November 14-23, 72 on November
24-27 and 73 on November 28-29.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on October 16-19, then 10 on
October 20, 8 on October 21-23, then 16, 38 and 38 on October 24-26,
then 26, 15 and 10 on October 27-29, 5 on October 30 through
November 6, 10 on November 7, 5 on November 8-15, then 10, 15 and 18
on November 16-18, 20 on November 19-20, then 24, 14 and 10 on
November 21-23, 8 on November 24-25, and 5 on November 26-29.

From OK1HH, this report:

"Geomagnetic field will be,
quiet on: October 16, November 5-7, 10-13
quiet to unsettled on: October 17, 31, November 3, 14-16
quiet to active on: October (18,) 19-20, 28-29, (30,) November (1, 4)
unsettled to active: October 22, (24,) 27, November 2, 8 (-9)
active to disturbed: October (21, 23,) 25-26

"Solar wind will intensify on: October (20-21,) 22, (23-25,) 26-29,
(30,) 31, November (2-3,) 4-5, (9-11).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Do you think the recent (or current) solar minimum is lasting a
little too long? Check this contrarian view:

https://bit.ly/3nWoGK0

Note the link Victor20-Sep23-SSN_Forecasts.tab toward the bottom of
the page. It shows sunspot records and predictions from 1730 til
2101!

Don't ask me to explain the numbers or how they were derived.

Also, perhaps someone can help this programmer on Stack Overflow
with his Python program for performing linear regression with a
sunspot database:

https://bit.ly/3lVNgIX

On Thursday I was listening to the local Puget Sound Repeater Group
machine on 146.96 MHz, and heard a couple of stations talking about
gray line long path propagation on 40 meters.

Dean Holtan, N7XS of Camano Island, Washington wrote, after I
inquired:

"On Wednesday October 14 at 1530 UTC I heard K6MYC and company
working ZS6 stations. I also heard a station in the Netherlands,
PA1A I believe. He was very loud along with the ZS6 stations, S9
plus on the long path.

"I was listening on my SDRplay RSPduo and a 160 meter loop at 100
feet. If I had gotten out of bed and went down to the shack I could
have worked them. Thursday October 15, 20 meters was nicely open
into Europe. KW7Y was working many G stations and EA short path at
1630 UTC. The above was all on phone.

"Last week on October 10 starting at 0130 UTC when I was on
vacation, on 20 meters at our sunset I worked UN7JX and VU2MB along
with many others in Asiatic Russia. I was called by a station in
Lebanon but that was unsuccessful all on FT8 running 500 watts and
my 160 meter loop at 100 feet from Camano Island Washington."

Also in the conversation (linking via internet from Kitchener,
Ontario) was Doug Behl, VE3XDB. Later, Doug wrote:

"Many amateurs today complain about propagation. Conditions haven't
been great for several years, although there is some glimmer of hope
that things may be getting better. Those experiencing the most
frustration seem to be the sideband operators. I have had some
success over the past few years, using a couple of principles:

"1. Use a mode that does better in poor conditions. These days,
everyone jumps to 'FT8,' which is a fantastic, low power mode that
does very well in poor conditions. However, I prefer a mode that is
more 'chatty,' creating a more traditional QSO experience. CW and
PSK31 are both very good modes for effective contact when conditions
are poor, and may provide an opportunity to get to know the contact
a bit better.

"2. Work the gray line. Grayline propagation occurs at daybreak or
at dusk. It is very interesting because it occurs at a very
particular time of day, opens up very quickly, and then, when time
is up, it just disappears! Here is an short, interesting article on
the science and experience of gray line propagation:

"https://www.qsl.net/w2vtm/grayline.html ."

"Following the above two principles, I have worked western and
eastern Europe, the Caribbean and South America, as well as Oceania
and Southeast Asia over the past few months, My modest station is
made up of a a short, inverted-L antenna and an old Kenwood
transceiver, usually running about 20 watts, and never more than 40
watts. Best results have been achieved on 20, 30 and 40 meters.

"To work the world when conditions are poor, I encourage others to
try CW and PSK31, especially at dawn or at dusk. You may be
surprised by the results achieved using a modest station. We need
more operators in both of these modes!"

Ken Brown, N4SO wrote:

"Evidence pointed to a very good propagation path to Asiatic Russia,
Japan, and to China on Saturday evening.

"From October 10, 2330Z UA0, and first BV, 21.074 MHZ FT8 mode.

"I first noticed UA0CA calling CQ from Asiatic Russia. This is a
rarity to see a UA0 on the screen and so far I have never completed
a contact. I have also never completed a contact with China until
Saturday evening.

"Calling UA0CA from my station was noticed by BV1EK, China, and he
called me, and was able to complete a contact. At this same time
period, completed contacts with JA1FGX, JQ1CIV, and JG1SRB.

"A contact with UA0CA or with UA0ZK was not made, but I can
appreciate the distance is roughly 5000 miles away. I will try again
on Sunday.

"(Distance to UA0ZK, for example, is 5391 miles.)"

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 8 through 14, 2020 were 0, 24, 26, 15,
15, 0, and 12, with a mean of 13.1. 10.7 cm flux was 71.6, 73.1,
73.6, 72.9, 73.8, 72.3, and 74.5, with a mean of 73.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of
2.7. Middle latitude A index was 2, 1, 2, 2, 3, 3, and 0, with a
mean of 1.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP43
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 43 ARLP043
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 23, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP043
ARLP043 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots appeared every day of the past reporting week, and compared
to the previous seven days, average daily sunspot number increased
from 13.1 to 15. Average daily solar flux rose from 73.1 to 74.5.
Geomagnetic indicators were up slightly, with average daily
planetary A index rising from 2.7 to 5, and middle latitude A index
from 1.9 to 4.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 75 on October 23-27, 72
on October 28, 70 on November 1-7, 73 on November 8-10, 72 on
November 11, 71 on November 12-13, 70 on November 14-23, 72 on
November 24-27, and 73 on November 28 through December 6.

Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 20 on October 23, 15 on
October 24-26, 12 on October 27, 10 on October 28, 8 on October 29,
and 5 on October 30 through November 6, 10 on November 7, 5 on
November 8-15, then 10, 15 and 18 on November 16-18, 20 on November
19-20, then 24, 14 and 10 on November 21-23, 8 on November 24-25,
and 5 on November 26 through December 6.

F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us his geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period October 23 to November 18, 2020.

"Geomagnetic field will be
quiet on: November 5-7, 10-13
quiet to unsettled on: October 31, November 3, 14-15
quiet to active on: October 28-29, (30,) November (1, 4,) 16
unsettled to active: October (24,) 27, November 2, (8-9,) 17-18
active to disturbed: October (23, 25-26)

"Solar wind will intensify on: October (23-25,) 26-29, (30,) 31,
November (2-3,) 4-5, (12-14,) 15-18.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

This report from Jeff, N8II in West Virginia:

"It took a while (first 10 days of October were pretty dismal), but
recently there has been an opening to Europe daily here on 15M and
perhaps conditions on 15 are better than the same time last year.
Conversely, very little has been heard on 12 or 10M CW or phone.
Last year featured some loud SA signals on 10M in the late
afternoon. I was busy today, October 22nd, no activity.

"It was October 10th when I started seeing 15M EU QSOs in my log.
MI0SAI in Northern Ireland was 59 at 1525Z on SSB and SJ6A in Sweden
was about S5-7 at 1542Z. Sunday the 11th I had some time to operate
and worked Germany, England, Italy, Netherlands, and Croatia all
with S7 or better signals on SSB between 1417-1527Z.

"One thing seems apparent, the MUF is so close to 21 MHz that each
opening is somewhat different in coverage and peak time of
propagation. Some other highlights: EU1KY in Belarus on SSB at
1306Z, OZ8KW in Denmark at 1411Z, SP9LCW in Poland at 1414Z, SM5YOC
Sweden at 1416Z and SM3LBP at 1528Z, OD5OZ Lebanon at 1608Z (quite
late for him) on the 12th. On the 13th I worked LY2TS in Lithuania
on CW at 1516Z and I had a CW pile up of mostly western EU until
1552Z with best DX being southern Russia, R6MI at 1544Z and UR7QC at
1547Z. Signals seem to completely or nearly fade by 1630Z and
decrease right after 1600Z. On the 16th 9K2HS Kuwait was my first
QSO on CW at 1532Z and he was S5-6, but heard me on first call. On
the 18th I logged 7Z1IS Saudi Arabia 5x7 at 1407Z. On the 19th,
there was a very strong opening to the UK from 1515-1548Z, but not
much happening earlier. On the 20th OH5LF Finland was 59+ when we
signed on SSB 1407Z; his antenna was 5 over 5 element yagis and he
was running 1.5 KW remote from his summer cottage.

"There were strong EU SSB signals on the 20th from 1330-1510Z after
starting with 9K2HS S5 on SSB. I worked 3 OD5 stations in Lebanon in
a row on SSB at 1500Z. The condition dropped rapidly after 1510Z,
very early for the band to close. Other stations worked during the
EU opening timeframe were ZS6TVB in South Africa and ZD7FT on St.
Helena Island with strong signals."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, Pennsylvania (FN20jq) sent this:

"Yikes, October out-of-season single-hop sporadic-E (Es) is active
on the 6 meter band along the east coast!

"Saturday, October 17th from 5 to 7 PM eastern local time, 2100 to
2300 UTC.

"This day is twenty-five days past the Autumnal Equinox, if anyone
is keeping track.

"Once again, the unexpected happens during the early recovery out of
a Solar Minimum.

"I was monitoring the 6M FT-8 mode on 50.313 MHz with WSJT-X for Es
to show-up along the Gulf of Mexico coastal region.

"Then it happened, the first direct decodes in monitor receiving
mode:

"215700 3 -0.4 1527 ~ WA2FZW W4KBX EL98
220345 -2 -0.4 2178 ~ KK2DOG W4KBX EL98
220545 -1 -0.4 2177 ~ KC3PIB W4KBX EL98
220845 -9 -0.5 1566 ~ CQ K2IL EL97

"Grid Squares:
EL98 - central Florida, around Orlando
EL97 - south central, north of Lake Okeechobee

"Now that the band is open with the Es expanding further south, I
decided to try for any contacts down on the SSB calling frequency on
50.125 MHz.

"When I rolled down there, several operators were already having
conversations about how pleasant that the band came back to life
since the summer months.

"At 2252 UTC I put out the first CQ call, AG4N, Bill from West
Point, Georgia, which is like 300+ yards from the Alabama state line
replied.

"From my QTH to AG4GN - azimuth 230 degree, distance 771 air miles.

"I gave Bill a signal report of Readability (4), Signal (7) with
QSB.

"The Es was being funneled as far away as Mobile, Alabama (996
miles) and Biloxi, Mississippi (1,045 miles).

"By 2335 UTC the band started to collapse with signal reports
sliding down to 2x2.

"No double-hop Es from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic or other
northern Caribbean Sea islands was heard.

"Even if the band sounds dead, I urge everyone to continue
monitoring the 6M SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz, then take it
one step further and make that CQ call. You might be pleasantly
rewarded even if you are running 10 watts into a 6M horizontal 1/2
wave dipole that is below eight feet off the ground."

A recent video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW can be found online at, https://bit.ly/34mi67T .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

For customizable propagation charts, vist the VOACAP Online for Ham
Radio website at, http://www.voacap.com/hf .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 15 through 21, 2020 were 14, 14, 15, 28,
12, 11, and 11, with a mean of 15. 10.7 cm flux was 73.8, 75.3,
73.1, 75.9, 74.8, 74.7, and 73.7, with a mean of 74.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 3, 6, 4, and 10, with a mean of 5.
Middle latitude A index was 2, 4, 5, 3, 5, 3, and 7, with a mean of
4.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP44
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA October 30, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP044
ARLP044 Propagation de K7RA

Our sun is finally waking up. Average daily sunspot number rose
this week from 15 to 17, which is nothing remarkable, but the
reporting week ended on Wednesday with a daily sunspot number of 36.
Average daily solar flux rose from 74.5 to 76.9.

The two sunspot regions currently visible, 2778 and 2779, have been
growing rapidly. The total sunspot area in millionths of the solar
disc on October 27 to 29 were 140, 230 and 440. Such activity has
not been seen since spring 2019, when the total sunspot area was
280, 300 and 410 on May 5 to 7, 2019. Still further back, the last
time the sunspot area was higher than the 440 we saw on Thursday was
late September and early October, 2017, when sunspot area reached
560.

You can find these old records here:

ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/

Predicted solar flux is 88 on October 30 and 31, which is
remarkable, then 82, 78, 75 and 72 on November 1 to 4, 74 on
November 5 to 7, 75 on November 8 to 12, 72 on November 13, 70 on
November 14 to 21, 74 and 72 on November 22 and 23, 70 on November
24 to 26, 72 on November 27, 74 on November 28 through December 4,
75 on December 5 to 9, 72 on December 10, and 70 on December 11 to
13.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 5, 12 and 8 on October 30 through
November 2, 5 on November 3 to 6, 10 on November 7, 5 on November 8
to 16, then 10, 8 and 12 on November 17 to 19, 18, 15 and 20 on
November 20 to 22, then 15, 10 and 8 on November 23 to 25, 5 on
November 26 to 27, 8 on November 28, and 5 on November 29 through
December 13.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH sends his geomagnetic activity forecast for the
period October 30 til November 25, 2020.

"Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: November 5 to 7, 10 and 11
Quiet to unsettled on: October 31, November 12 to 15
Quiet to active on: October (30,) November (3 and 4, 8 and 9,) 16,
23 to 25
Unsettled to active: November (1 and 2, 17 to 19,) 21 and 22
Active to disturbed: November 20

Solar wind will intensify on: October (30 and 31,) November (2,) 3
to 5, (18 to 20,) 21 to 25

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Note that OK1HH predicts disturbed conditions on the day prior to
the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes Contest. But over that weekend, Friday
through Sunday, the NOAA/USAF prediction sees planetary A index at
18, 15 and 20.

I frequently check https://pskreporter.info/pskmap.html for
connections from CN87, my local grid square. With the increasing
solar activity over the past couple of days I've seen worldwide 12
meter propagation via FT8 reported.

I also check the STEREO site at https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ to
peek across the solar horizon to look for upcoming activity. Right
now on Thursday night I see some big white blotches, in both the
southern and northern hemispheres indicating possible activity.

This report from Jeff, N8II in West Virginia on October 29:

"Today was a great day on 10 through 15 meters with the SFI reported
as high as 88! I was slow to get started, but worked about 20
Europeans on 10 meters with some signals around S9! At one point 4
out of 5 CW QSOs in a row were new band slots on 10M CW in my 4 year
old log: Hungary, Ireland, Slovak Republic, and Montenegro, also
adding Serbia. Some signals from England, Wales, and Italy were
still good copy past 1600Z. Most 12M activity was FT8, but I did
work loud stations from France and Bulgaria.

In the CQWW Phone contest, I worked mainly 15M, but was peeking at
10M long enough to work 4 Italians quite early around 1325Z at the
same time there was sporadic E to Newfoundland Saturday. I worked 3
French stations, plus OE2S in Austria, DL5L in Germany and the
loudest PI4DX in the Netherlands about S8 in the 1500Z hour Sunday.

I expected to hear no signals on 15M at the 0000Z start as it was
nearly 2 hours past sunset. I was surprised to make 26 QSOs before
the band died past 0100Z. At the start there was sporadic E to
Florida and Cuba, and stations from southern SA were workable. Into
the Pacific, I worked 3 Hawaiians, New Zealand, and Queensland,
Australia.

All weekend the K index was either 3 or 4 and especially Saturday it
hurt propagation to Europe despite an early opening to southern EU.
The most northern QSOs were Scotland and Poland. But, there were
plenty of stations from Central and Western EU to work and late in
the opening I caught a big gun in the Ukraine. The 250 kHz phone
band filled up by 1300Z. I could tell prop to Germany was limited
and UK stations were not as loud as a normal recent day. In fact,
Friday before the WW was one of the best EU openings of the season
so far.

In the afternoon many stations in SA were active, particularly from
Brazil and Argentina, but signals mid afternoon were weaker than
expected. African signals from the Madeira and Canary Islands were
loud until about 1900Z. I also worked 7Q6M in Malawi and ZS6TVB in
South Africa. Over both days, conditions were often good to the
Middle East: I logged Israel, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates,
and Saudi Arabia, missing Lebanon which I had worked multiple times
the week prior. The last stations worked were around 2340Z in
Mexico.

Sunday, conditions were better to EU and SA. I started filling in
the Northern EU map working Belarus, UB7K in southern Russia,
Lithuania, OH0V in Aland Is., Sweden, Norway, and Denmark, missing 2
weak stations from Estonia. After the band closed fairly late to
EU, there was an auroral sporadic E opening to Finland around 2000Z
working OH1F and OG6N about 3 KHz apart.

Band crowding was severe during the EU opening making it hard to
hear weaker signals. I noticed USA big guns working EU stations I
could not hear or barely heard the last 90 minutes of the opening.
ZD7BG on St. Helena Island in the South Atlantic was very difficult
to work due to the pile up, but finally logged around 1915Z. I kept
looking for Alaska, Japan, or north/east Pacific stations to no
avail due to the disturbed conditions both days. SA stations were
workable an hour past sunset, but no new Pacific countries were
heard."

Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas wrote:

"Last week's bulletin mentioned sporadic-E reported by Mike, KA3JAW
on 6 Meters October 17.

More sporadic-E appeared on 6 Meters the following week, and some
interesting links and propagation occurred.

On October 22, there was a major sporadic-E opening on 50 MHz across
the eastern half of North America. The sporadic-E was able to link
to late afternoon TEP (trans-equatorial-propagation) on to Brazil.
Stations in New England and along the eastern seaboard were able to
work deep into Brazil. This with a solar flux of only 75.

October 24 sporadic-E took place from the Heartland to the southeast
states in the evening on 50 MHz. KF0M (EM17), N0LL (EM09) and N0JK
(EM28) made 6 Meter FT8 contacts to Georgia, Florida, and South
Carolina around 0030z (October 25 UTC). Earlier I had sporadic-E on
10 Meters to Mexico, working XE1KK and XE1RK on 28.074 MHz FT8.

The following morning a very unusual opening took place on 6 Meters
around 1440z. Trans-Atlantic multi-hop sporadic Es occurred from
New England to central Europe. This is the first trans-Atlantic
October sporadic-E opening I am aware of. Es are rare in October,
and a multi-hop trans-Atlantic opening of this magnitude is
incredible."

Max White, M0VNG sent this from the UK concerning our sun's
reawakening:

https://bit.ly/2TCTWQc

The latest from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://bit.ly/34DkQO8

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 22 through 28, 2020 were 11, 11, 11, 11,
17, 22, and 36, with a mean of 17. 10.7 cm flux was 74.9, 72, 72.1,
74.2, 75, 82.4, and 87.6, with a mean of 76.9. Estimated planetary
A indices were 6, 12, 17, 15, 15, 9, and 12, with a mean of 12.3.
Middle latitude A index was 3, 10, 16, 9, 15, 7, and 9, with a mean
of 9.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45 ARLP045
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 6, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

10.7 cm solar flux density was 88.1 on Wednesday, November 4, the
highest since October 14, 2016 when it was 92.8.

The average daily solar flux for that week as reported in this
bulletin was 76.9, and average daily sunspot number was 18.7 (see https://bit.ly/3oYTDxO), so activity four years ago was similar to
recent activity (in fact those numbers closely match the flux and
SSN in last week's bulletin). But in 2016 Solar Cycle 24 was
declining, reaching a minimum about three years later, in December
2019.

The daily solar flux is measured at noon local time (GMT -8 hours)
in Penticton, British Columbia, but there are actually three daily measurements, at 1800 UTC, 2000 UTC and 2200 UTC.

Solar flux has been steadily increasing since the 2000 UTC reading
on November 2. The three daily readings through November 5 were
81.6, 81.9, 82.9, 82.9, 83.7, 86.9, 88.1, 89, 91.1, 90.7 and 92. But
the daily 2000 UTC reading is always reported as the official number
for the day.

https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php is where
you can see all the daily flux readings.

Average daily sunspot number during the current reporting week
(October 29 through November 4) was 21.3, compared to 17 over the
prior seven days. Average daily solar flux was 81.6, compared to
76.9 reported last week.

Average daily planetary A index this week was 6.3, down from 12.3
last week. Average daily mid-latitude A index was 4.9, down from 9.9
last week.

Spaceweather.com reported at 0703 UTC on November 3 the new sunspot
group produced a minor solar flare, and a pulse of UV radiation
"briefly ionized Earth's upper atmosphere, causing a low-frequency
radio blackout over the Indian Ocean."

Later another flare occurred at 0022 UTC on November 5, which caused
a brief blackout over Australia and the Pacific Ocean, causing
signals below 10 MHz to fade.

Check https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/beacon/ for a 360-degree view of
the STEREO image, which you can see in its conventional format at, https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov .

Predicted solar flux is 88 on November 5-10, 83 on November 11, then
dropping to 75, 74 and 75 on November 12-14, 76 on November 15-21,
75 on November 22-27, 74 on November 28-29, 72 on November 30
through December 5, 74 on December 6-10, 75 on December 11, 76 on
December 12-18, and 75 on December 19.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8 and 8 on November 5-7, 5 on
November 8-16, 10, 5, 10 and 15 on November 17-20, 12 on November
21-22, then 8, 10 and 12 on November 23-25, 5 on November 26-27, 10
on November 28, 5 on November 29 through December 13, then 8, 5 and
8 on December 14-16, 12 on December 17, and 10 on December 18-19.

The forecast was from November 4, but unfortunately there was no
updated prediction on November 5. But you can check these daily flux
and geomagnetic predictions updated daily at, ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .

There is a big new sunspot group, AR2781, which Spaceweather.com
reports is the largest so far in new Solar Cycle 25. It should be
geo-effective (facing Earth) over the next ten days.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 6 to December
2, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: November 6-7, 9-11, December 1-2
quiet to unsettled on: November 8, 12-15, 19, 26-27, 30
quiet to active on: November 16-18, 22-25, (29)
unsettled to active: November 21, (28)
active to disturbed: November 20

"Solar wind will intensify on: November (18-20,) 21-25 (30, December
2).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

This weekend is the CW portion of the ARRL Sweepstakes contest,
running from 2100 UTC Saturday until 0259 UTC on Monday. See http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for details.

A cool photo of the WWV antennas in Colorado, and from an unusual
perspective:

https://bit.ly/35UUA1l

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham
Radio website at, http://www.voacap.com/hf .

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for October 29 through November 4, 2020 were 35, 32,
26, 12, 11, 15, and 18, with a mean of 21.3. 10.7 cm flux was 84.6,
79.6, 76.8, 77.3, 81.6, 82.9, and 88.1, with a mean of 81.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 5, 6, 10, 3, 3, and 3, with a
mean of 6.3. Middle latitude A index was 11, 4, 6, 8, 2, 2, and 1,
with a mean of 4.9.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP46
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 46 ARLP046
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 13, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP046
ARLP046 Propagation de K7RA

The last time we experienced a day with no sunspots was October 13.
Prior to that, September 26 through October 8, September 24, and
August 21 through September 22 had no sunspots. Cycle 25 is clearly
underway and going strong.

Average daily sunspot number over the past reporting week, November
5 to 11 was 31.3, up from 21.3 in the previous seven days. Average
daily solar flux increased from 81.6 to 90. The higher HF bands are
opening up.

Geomagnetic indicators were very quiet, with average daily planetary
A index dropping from 6.3 to 4.4, and middle latitude A index (based
on readings from a single magnetometer on Wallops Island, Virginia)
from 4.9 to 2.7.

Predicted solar flux for the following seven days was revised
downward on Thursday, November 12. Predicted flux is 85 on November
13 to 15, 82 on November 16, 80 on November 17 to 19, 78 on November
20 to 25, then 80 and 82 on November 26 and 27, 86 on November 28
through December 5, then 90, 88, 86 and 84 on December 6 to 9, 82 on
December 10 and 11, 80 on December 12, 78 on December 13 to 22, 80
and 82 on December 23 and 24, and 86 on December 25 to 27.

Predicted planetary A index is 8 on November 13 to 15, 5 on November
16 to 19, then 15, 12 and 15 on November 20 to 22, then 8, 10 and 12
on November 23 to 25, 5 on November 26 through December 2, 8 on
December 3 and 4, 5 on December 5 to 8, then 8 and 10 on December 9
and 10, 5 on December 11 to 13, then 10, 5 and 10 on December 14 to
16, then 15, 12 and 15 on December 17 to 19, then 8, 10 and 12 on
December 20 to 22, then 5, 5, 8, 5 and 5 on December 23 to 27.

See https://bit.ly/38CfS6W for an article about increasing solar
activity.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 13 to December
9, 2020 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: November 13 and 14, December 1, 6 to 8
Quiet to unsettled on: November 15 to 19, 23 to 30, December 2, 4
Quiet to active on: December 3, 5, 9
Unsettled to active: November (20 to 22)
Active to disturbed: None

Solar wind will intensify on: November (18 to 20,) 21 to 25, (30,)
December (2,) 3 to 5, (9)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW of Easton, PA reported:

"Friday, November 6th was a good day for 10 meters, between
2000-2100 UTC, a wide regional swath between the North Pacific
Ocean, North America and Western Europe were all hearing call sign
prefixes of:
CE/XR: Chile
CX: Uruguay
LU/LW: Argentina
PY: Brazil

Modes heard were CW, FT8, SSB.

Signal strength went from background noise level of 2 up to 9+ dB.
F2 distances ranged approximately from 3000 to 6000 miles (4828 to
9656 km). DXmaps on 28 MHz indicated the MUF reached 66 MHz above
grid square FN11 (Williamsport, PA) at 2009 UTC, then ramped up to
72 MHz above FN00 (Altoona, PA) at 2046 UTC.

Prior to local sunset at 2152 UTC, the F2 slowly faded out into the
South Pacific Ocean off the middle western coast of South America.

Five days later, November 11th:

Around 2130 to 2320 UTC both Sporadic-E (Es) and F2 started on the
11 meter band.

Background noise level ranged between 3 to 4 db.

Puerto Rico stations via Es were heard strong up to 20+ db with
light fades.

The following eight southern states were heard with signal
strength's ranging from 8 to 18 db: AL, AR, FL, GA, KY, LA, MS, TN.

At 2248 UTC the 10 meter band, FT8 mode was lightly active into AL
and TN til 2320 UTC when the DX finally dived under the 4 db noise
floor."

Useful images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/

Atlas Obscura on Hisako Koyama:

https://bit.ly/2Uu1Cod

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 5 through 11, 2020 were 28, 35, 37, 40,
27, 27, and 25, with a mean of 31.3. 10.7 cm flux was 90.7, 93.8,
90.6, 90, 90, 86.8, and 88.1, with a mean of 90. Estimated planetary
A indices were 4, 8, 7, 5, 1, 2, and 4, with a mean of 4.4. Middle
latitude A index was 3, 7, 4, 3, 0, 0, and 2, with a mean of 2.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP47
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 47 ARLP047
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA November 20, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP047
ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

As solar flux declined over the past week, I noticed less long
distance propagation on 10 meters reported on pskreporter.info from
my local grid square CN87.

Propagation on 12 meters though was quite strong. After 0100 UTC on
Nov 15 trans-equatorial propagation was evident between East Asia
and Australia on 10 meters.

Further down in this bulletin is a 12 meter report from NN4X.

Solar activity declined dramatically over the past week, with
average daily sunspot numbers going from 31.3 to 12. On November 15
and 16 there were no sunspots at all, which greatly affected the
decline in this week's average.

Solar flux weakened from a weekly average last week of 90, to 79.8
this week.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days until the start of 2021
is also relatively weak, although the short term prediction improved
from November 18 to November 19. The November 19 prediction is 75 on
November 20 to December 8, 72 on December 9-10, 70 on December
11-12, 75, 72 and 72 on December 13-15, 70 on December 16-22, 72 on
December 23-24, and 75 on December 25 through January 3, 2021.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 12 and 8 on November 20-23,
then 5 on November 24 through December 2, 8 on December 3-4, 5 on
December 5-17, then 8, 12, 8, 10 and 12 on December 18-22, 5 on
December 23-29, 8 on December 30-31, and 5 on January 1-3, 2021.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 20 to December
16, 2020 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: December 1, 6-8, 12-14, (15-16)
quiet to unsettled on: November 28-30, December 2, 4, 10-11
quiet to active on: November 26-27, December 3, 5, 9
unsettled to active: November (20,) 21-22, (23-25)
active to disturbed: - None predicted

"Solar wind will intensify on: November (20,) 21-25, (30,) December
(2,) 3-5, (9).

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower because there are
few unambiguous indications."

This bulletin has mentioned the paper by McIntosh, et. al.,
"Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number:
Predicting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude."

This week a reference appeared in the ARRL Letter, and
https://bit.ly/36Pb0J7 is a link to that paper.

My favorite passage: "Our method predicts that SC25 could be among
the strongest sunspot cycles ever observed, and that it will almost
certainly be stronger than present SC24 (sunspot number of 116) and
most likely stronger than the previous SC23 (sunspot number of 180).
This is in stark contrast to the consensus of the SC25PP, sunspot
number maximum between 95 and 130, i.e., similar to that of SC24."

SC25PP is the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which met in
September 2020.

The new prediction is very exciting, and suggests a cycle that may
rival Cycle 19, which peaked in March, 1958. The effects on
shortwave radio propagation were remarkable, and included daily
worldwide propagation on 10 and even 6 meters, and not just during
daylight hours.

I was about to turn six years old at the time, and we lived in
Reedley, a small fruit packing town in California's San Joaquin
Valley, where my father worked supplying agricultural chemicals to
farmers. He drove a company car which contained a low-band VHF FM
radio (probably 30-40 MHz, judging from my memory of the bumper
mounted antenna), and I recall him describing being unable to
contact the base station in Fresno, about 25 miles away, while
getting QRM from other users in Texas.

I've heard from many hams who were new Novice licensees at the time,
and assumed conditions would always be like they were then. They
have been waiting a long time.

I would love to see daily sunspot numbers above 200.

An article about sunspot activity in 1958:

https://bit.ly/3pOtbHE

NN4X reported from Florida on 12 meter FT8 activity on November 14:

"12M was in great shape!
------------------------------------ 12m
134500 1 0.1 1225 ~ DL1EZ TZ1CE -14
134500 3 -0.5 1596 ~ OQ4U KM8AM R-07
134500 20 0.5 1786 ~ PY2GG EA8TH R+12
134500 13 0.3 2058 ~ SM7DLK WA8NLX EM92
134500 9 0.2 1976 ~ CQ OZ7PBI JO45
134500 2 -0.4 1712 ~ SV2DFK V51LZ RR73
134500 0 0.0 2107 ~ CQ EA1DR IN82
134500 -9 0.1 629 ~ 9J2BS EA4CYQ IM78
134500 -20 -0.2 1393 ~ 9J2BS YB9WIC R-13
134500 -18 0.0 994 ~ CQ S79VU LI75
------------------------------------ 12m
134530 20 0.5 1786 ~ PY2GG EA8TH R+12
134530 28 0.1 862 ~ EA8AAH W4AFB EL98
134530 -5 -0.4 1712 ~ 4Z4DX V51LZ R+01
134530 -13 0.1 1225 ~ DL1EZ TZ1CE -14"

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW (FN20jq) wrote:

"Yikes, October out-of-season single-hop sporadic-E is active on the
6 meter band along the east coast!

"On Saturday, October 17, 2100-2300 UTC, it is 25 days past the
Autumnal Equinox.

"Once again, the unexpected happens during the early recovery out of
a Solar Minimum.

"I was monitoring the 6M FT-8 mode on 50.313 MHz for Es to show-up
along the Gulf of Mexico coastal region.

"Then it happened, the first direct decodes in monitor receiving
mode:

"215700 3 -0.4 1527 ~ WA2FZW W4KBX EL98
220345 -2 -0.4 2178 ~ KK2DOG W4KBX EL98
220545 -1 -0.4 2177 ~ KC3PIB W4KBX EL98
220845 -9 -0.5 1566 ~ CQ K2IL EL97

"Grid Squares:
EL98 - central Florida, around Orlando
EL97 - south central, north of Lake Okeechobee

"Now that the band is open with the Es expanding further south, I
decided to try for any contacts down on the SSB calling frequency on
50.125 MHz.

"When I rolled down there, several operators were already having
conversations about how pleasant that the band came back to life
since the summer months.

"At 2252 UTC I put out the first CQ call, AG4N, Bill from West Point,
Georgia, very close to the Alabama state line replied.

"From my QTH to AG4N, azimuth 230 deg, distance 771 air miles.

"I gave Bill a 4x7 signal report with QSB.

"The Es was being funneled as far away as Mobile, Alabama (996 miles)
and Biloxi, Mississippi (1,045 miles).

"By 2335 UTC the band started to collapse with signal reports sliding
down to 2x2.

"No double-hop Es from Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic or other
northern Caribbean Sea islands was heard.

"Even if the band conditions sound dead, I urge everyone to continue
monitoring the 6M SSB calling frequency, 50.125 MHz, then take it
one step further and make that CQ call. You might be pleasantly
rewarded even if you are running 10 watts into a 6M horizontal 1/2
wave dipole that is below eight feet off the ground."

Here is a forecast from November 14 from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://youtu.be/HCBth8nS79w

This weekend is the ARRL SSB Sweepstakes Contest, see http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes .

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 12 through 18, 2020 were 27, 24, 11, 0,
0, 11, and 11, with a mean of 12. 10.7 cm flux was 85.1, 81.9, 80.2,
78.7, 76.6, 79.1, and 77.3, with a mean of 79.8. Estimated planetary
A indices were 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 3, and 4, with a mean of 3.1. Middle
latitude A index was 3, 2, 2, 2, 0, 3, and 3, with a mean of 2.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP48
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48 ARLP048
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 1, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

Over the past week our Sun has been quite active, with rising
sunspot numbers and solar flux showing strong evidence that Solar
Cycle 25 is progressing.

Average daily sunspot number rose from 12 last week to 27.9 in the
current week, while solar flux rose to a high of 103.7, bringing
average daily solar flux up from 79.8 to 90.1.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 3.1 to 9.9, and average
daily middle latitude A index went from 2.1 to 7.7.

Predicted solar flux is 106, 108 and 105 on November 27-29, 102 on
November 30 through December 4, then 92, 88 and 85 on December 5-7,
then 82, 80 and 78 on December 8-10, 75 on December 11-17, then 77,
80, 90 and 92 on December 18-21, 94 on December 22-25, 92 on
December 26 through January 1, 2021, then 88, 85, 82, 80 and 78 on
January 2-6, and 75 on January 7-10.

The Planetary A Index forecast shows values of 8 on November 27, 5
on November 28 through December 17, then 12, 24 and 18 on December
18-20, 10, 12 and 10 on December 21-23, 5 on December 24-29, 8 on
December 30-31, and 5 on January 1-10, 2021.

Solar flux is measured thrice daily in Penticton, British Columbia,
and values have risen steadily in the past few days. Starting at
2200 UTC on November 24, they were 99.6, 102.8, 103.7, 104, 105.7,
105.8 and 110.2.

See them here:
https://www.spaceweather.gc.ca/solarflux/sx-5-flux-en.php

The official daily flux value is taken at noon, local time in
Penticton, which is 2000 UTC.

VA7JW article about the observatory:

http://archive.nsarc.ca/hf/drao_solar.pdf

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 27 until
December 22, 2020 from OK1HH:

"Geomagnetic field will be,
quiet on: December 7, 12-14, (15-16)
quiet to unsettled on: November 29-30, December 1-2, 6, 8, 11
quiet to active on: November 27-28, December 3-5, 9-10, 17, 22
unsettled to active: December 18, 21
active to disturbed: December 19-20

"Solar wind will intensify on: November (30,) December (2,) 3-5,
(9,) 17-19.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains lower because there are still few
unambiguous indications. In addition, the situation is relatively
rapidly changing. Which, by the way, is an indicator of further
growth in activity."

Jon Jones, N0JK reported on November 25:

"Sporadic-E is picking up on 6 Meters as Thanksgiving approached.

"Had K0GU (DN70) into northeast KS via Es on 50.313 MHz ~ 2344z with
'-12 dB' signals on FT8 November 24.

"Noted K0GU made a number of contacts into the St. Louis, MO area
and W9. Also saw AC4TO (EM70) in Florida working Brazil ~ 0050z
November 25. May have been a sporadic-E link to TEP or possibly
direct TEP.

"A typical spot: PY1MHZ 20/11/25 0057Z 50313.0 Into EM70 AC4TO"

KA3JAW reported November 25:

"Sporadic-E, both double and triple-hop rolled-up on 10 meters for
six hours starting around 1253 till 1921 UTC.

"Background noise level was 4 dBm on the signal strength meter.

"The following countries, states heard: Trinidad, West Indies, AZ,
Canada, CO, KS, NM, OK, TX, WA

"Texas was the most heard state.

"What was different with this event was the lack of southeastern
states."

AA8WH reported:

"This is Bill Herzberg, AA8WH, of Dearborn Heights, Michigan. Just
wanted to let you and everybody else know, 10 METERS IS ALIVE AND
WELL.

"Starting after noon on November 25, I decided to check out the 6m
and 10m FT8 frequencies. Wasn't much happening on 6m, only heard a
few calls, so I moved down to 10m. Boy what a difference. 10m FT8
signals were coming in from all over the place.

"I decided to go down to the sideband portion and see what was going
on. Heard lots of ssb stations around 28.4. Heard some more above
that.

"Went down to 28.3, and heard several really strong stations.

"Went down to the beacon subband, heard beacon stations, lots of
'em, some doubling up on frequencies.

"So I went down to 12m. Heard several SSB stations, FT8 was hopping.
15m was wide open, as was 17m. 20m was also going strong.

"I think that it was a combination of better conditions and a lot of
folks home for the holidays.

"Nice to hear the bands open. It's a taste of what's coming, when it
will be possible to work the world with a few watts. Those times are
coming, and it won't be soon enough for me."

Thanks to Paul NO0T for this recording of Dr. Scott McIntosh (see https://bit.ly/3lafPle for his CV) and his presentation to the
"Front Range 6 Meter Group" concerning Solar Cycle 25:

https://youtu.be/lRNJPkQPo_g

Don't miss this! Some of what he reports is quite startling, and
optimistic.

Coming up in two weeks is the ARRL 10 Meter contest, which will
especially benefit from higher solar activity. See
http://www.arrl.org/10-meter for details.

See this article on helioseismology and sunspot prediction:

https://bit.ly/39gIAdD

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, is very excited about the new solar
activity:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6L-FutZmw8

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 19 through 25, 2020 were 11, 11, 23,
35, 38, 37, and 40, with a mean of 27.9. 10.7 cm flux was 76.7,
81.7, 85, 87.7, 95.5, 100.4, and 103.7, with a mean of 90.1.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 8, 12, 27, 8, 4, and 7, with a
mean of 9.9. Middle latitude A index was 2, 9, 9, 19, 7, 4, and 4,
with a mean of 7.7.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP49
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 4, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP049
ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot cycle 25 is a year old, and increasing solar activity
continues to surprise and amaze.

Average daily sunspot numbers more than doubled every week over the
past few weeks. ARLP047 reported average daily sunspot numbers of
12, then last week the average was 27.9, and now this week we report
the average daily sunspot number at 57.6.

In the past week the highest daily sunspot number was 84 on Sunday,
November 29, and solar flux also peaked that day, at 116.3, pushing
the week's average solar flux to 108.1, up from 90.1 over the
previous seven days and 79.8 in the week prior to that.

Geomagnetic indicators were moderate, despite several solar flares
reported on Spaceweather.com. Jon Jones, N0JK reports that on
November 29 at 1311 UTC earth orbiting satellites detected the
biggest solar flare in over 3 years. But it was not earth directed,
so magnetometers on earth indicated nothing unusual.

But this is a sure sign that activity is increasing.

Predicted solar flux over the next 45 days is 100, 95, 90, 85 and 80
on December 4 to 8, 75 on December 9 to 11, 85 on December 12, 82 on
December 13 to 16, 85, 90 and 100 on December 17 to 19, 105 on
December 20 and 21, 108 on December 22, 110 on December 23 to 25,
115 on December 26 and 27, 113 on December 28 to 30, 110 on December
31, 105 and 103 on January 1 and 2, 2021, 95 on January 3 and 4, 92
and 88 on January 5 and 6, 85 on January 7 and 8, 82 on January 9 to
12, then 85, 90, and 100 on January 13 to 15 and 105 on January 16
and 17.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on December 4 to 17, then 12, 20
and 8 on December 18 to 20, 5 on December 21 and 22, 8, 10 and 8 on
December 23 to 25, 5 on December 26 2020 through January 13, 2021,
then 12, 20, 8 and 5 on January 14 to 17.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 4 to 29, 2020
from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: December 6 and 7, 12 and 13, (14 to 16)
Quiet to unsettled on: December 8 to 11, 21, 28
Quiet to active on: December 4 (and 5), 17, 22 and 23, 26, 29
Unsettled to active: December 18, 20, (24) and 25, (27)
Active to disturbed: December 19

Solar wind will intensify on December 4, (5 to 8, 11, 19,) 20 to 22,
(23,) 27 (28 and 29)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Jeff Hartley, N8II reports from FM19cj in Shepherdstown, West
Virginia.

"About 10 days does not make an average, but I can never remember
such a sudden sustained increase in SFI as the new cycle begins.
Perhaps October 1978 may have been similar, but assume flux was
already fairly high in the preceding months and the new cycle was
only about a year from the peak.

Conditions or at least activity seemed to be down a bit in the week
preceding the CQWW CW contest until Friday which seemed better. 20M
was a bit disappointing at the Saturday November 0000Z start with
most DX coming from Southern South America.

D4Z on Cape Verde was loud and continued to be through most of the
weekend on 20.

I managed a marginal scatter with Italy beaming at 150 degrees (over
Brazil).

Moving to 40 at 0023Z signals were loud from Germany and Hungary
farther south. At 0121Z 7Q6M Malawi and CR3W Madeira Is. were logged
easily on 40. On 80M at 0220Z I could work EU excluding Russia north
of the Black Sea area and the Baltic states, but signals were not
that loud. 160M was very tough with large pile ups on NA DX and not
much readable from Africa or Europe.

I resumed on 20M at 1158Z about 10 minutes before sunrise and the
band was already full of loud Europeans even open already to Russia.
Signal levels were very good with high activity. R8WF in Asia but
still in the EU Russian zone 16 was my best DX to the east.

By 1309Z signals from EU were building nicely on 15M from nearly all
corners. Some of my first contacts were OH3077F in Finland, RL6M
southern Russia, LY4T Lithuania, and UT7NY Ukraine. By 1430Z,
Northern EU was mostly gone on 15M, but I maintained a good EU QSO
rate until about 1522Z. A brief visit to 10M then found Spain (very
weak), Canary Is., Puerto Rico, French Guiana, and Cayman Is. Then
it was back to 20 with good western EU conditions until about 1700Z
staying there working EU until 1721Z. 5H3EE Tanzania went into my
15M log at 1735Z.

Starting at 1741Z 10M was open well to Chile, Argentina, and a bit
less well to Brazil. The 10M SA opening was starting to fade at
1900Z. Back on 20M at 1927Z there was a good auroral sporadic E
opening to Scandinavia on 20M. ZM1M New Zealand had a good long path
signal at 1953Z as did VK4TS Queensland, Australia shortly after.

On 15M starting at 2015Z, I worked New Zealand, Australia, Hawaii,
and Alaska. A quick check of 10M at 2105Z yielded 5 contacts with
loud Hawaiians! The first Japanese station, JA1ZGO I worked at
2125Z, but the auroral curtain was like a wall and only big gun JA's
were worked through 2355Z. I heard 3 Chinese stations due north from
here, but no contacts were made.

At sunset 2151Z, southern SA was loud and I was thrilled to work
JR1GSE Japan at 2157Z. The low band conditions were not good to
northern EU on any band during the evening, but 40 did stay open to
some extent to southern EU through 0200Z. 80M EU signals were down,
and on 160 very weak.

I managed some quick QSOs on 40 to UN9L Kazakhstan, VK3GI Australia,
and ZM1A New Zealand starting at 1133Z. 20M was not fully open to EU
at 1152Z, but much better 10 minutes later.

I logged many EU over the next 70 minutes and was thrilled to be
called by EX8MJ Kyrgyzstan who was weak, and UN0L. At 1304Z, I found
good EU signals on 15M and soon there were some incredibly loud
signals 20 to 30db over S9! Even stations in N and NE EU were very
workable but weaker.

4L6QL, Georgia was my best DX to the east. At 1424Z, there was a
weak opening to EU on 10M logging Italy, Slovak Rep., and France,
and CR3DX on Madeira, AF. Later at 1524Z on 10, I found ZD7BG, St.
Helena Is., and at 1603Z Croatia, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and 7Q6M
Malawi. CR6K in Portugal was still heard at 1730Z, very late! The
opening to EU on 15M lasted late, still okay but fading at 1650Z. I
was able to keep a good EU QSO rate going on 20 through 1743Z, much
later than Saturday."

On December 3, N7RP reported from New Mexico:

"This morning a little after 8 AM local time, I worked HS0ZGC
(Thailand) on 12 meters on FT8. He was working South American
Stations and I did not see any other US stations work him other than
myself. I am just running 100 W to a vertical, so I have no idea
what path it was. It was amazing, since it must have been around
midnight there. He immediately uploaded to LOTW, so the contact is
confirmed."

Look up N7RP on QRZ.com to read his great narrative about his life
in ham radio. Not to be missed!

6,000 km TEP contact between Aruba and Argentina on 2 meter SSB
reported:

https://bit.ly/2JJ3veM

Mike Schaffer, KA3JAW reported from Easton, Pennsylvania FN20jq.

"On Monday, November 30, 11 meter CB (27 MHz) was very active from coast-to-coast.

Even if you're under heavy rain, with severe thunderstorms you still
can detect stations via sporadic-e (Es) well past the 2,600 mile
(4184 km) range.

The radio background noise levels varied between 3 to 5 dBm on the
signal strength meter.

Below are places that I heard, distance, and sporadic-e hops.

AZ (Tempe) - 2072 miles (3334 km) (2x)
CA (Los Angeles) - 2384 (3836 km) miles (2x)
CA (San Diego) - 2366 miles (3807 km) (2x)
CO (Denver) - 1567 miles (2521 km) (1x)
MT (Bozeman) - 1823 miles (2933 km) (2x)
NM (Albuquerque) - 1749 (2814 km) (1x)
NV (Los Vegas) - 2167 miles (3487 km) (2x)
OK (Oklahoma city) - 1261 miles (2029 km) (1x)
PR (San Juan) - 2625 miles (4224 km) (2x)
TX (San Antonio) - 1524 miles (2452 km) (1x)
TX (El Paso) - 1839 miles (2959 km) (2x)
UT (Salt Lake City) - 1908 miles (3070 km) (2x)
WA (Seattle) - 2349 miles (3780 km) (2x)
Canada, Alberta (Calgary) - 1974 miles (3176 km) (2x)
Canada, British Columbia (Vancouver) - 2377 miles (3825 km) (2x)
Jamaica (Kingston) - 1569 miles (2525 km) (1x)"

Newspaper coverage of solar flare:

https://bit.ly/2I9hXME

And NYC image:

https://bit.ly/3g6migj

Frank Donovan, W3LPL shared this several days ago:

"A solar flare from massive solar region 2786 at 1311Z on Sunday 29
November was the most powerful solar flare and coronal mass ejection
(CME) thus far during solar cycle 25. The sun's activity is now
rapidly increasing after a slow increase in activity this year
following solar minimum last December.

The flare and CME erupted from just behind the southeast solar limb
and was not Earth directed. The shock enhancement/glancing blow from
the CME may cause unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on 1
and 2 December. There is a chance for additional M-class solar
flares through 2 December and a slight chance for much stronger
X-class flares.

The WSA-Enlil model shows the 29 November solar flare and associated
CME. Earth is the yellow dot."

https://go.nasa.gov/2VxzXDH

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for November 26 through December 2, 2020 were 43,
60, 67, 84, 62, 46, and 41, with a mean of 57.6. 10.7 cm flux was
105.8, 106.3, 109.6, 116.3, 109.4, 104.1, and 104.9, with a mean of
108.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 8, 10, 6, 8, 2, and 4,
with a mean of 6.4. Middle latitude A index was 5, 7, 9, 6, 6, 2,
and 4, with a mean of 5.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP50
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50 ARLP050
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 11, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity quieted this week, with average daily sunspot number
declining from 57.6 to 28.9, and average daily solar flux softening
from 108.1 to 91.9. On December 8 to 10, the sunspot number was 11
on each day, which is the minimum non-zero sunspot number.

Sunspot group 2786 gave us some great activity, but is about to
rotate off our sun's visible surface. But a look at https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov on Thursday night shows some magnetic
complexity about to became geo-effective from the sun's southern
hemisphere, which could mean more great conditions.

Average daily planetary A index went from 6.4 to 4.4, and average
daily middle latitude A index went from 5.6 to 3.1.

Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is 82 on December 11 and
12, 84 on December 13 and 14, 80 on December 15 to 18, 92 on
December 19 to 24, 94 on December 25 to 28, 96, 94 and 92 on
December 29 to 31, 90 on January 1, 2021 to January 4, 88 on January
5 to 7, 86 on January 8 to 11, then 84, 85 and 88 on January 12 to
14, 92 on January 15 to 20, and 94 on January 21 to 24.

The forecast for planetary A index shows 12, 8, and 8 on December 11
to 13, 5 on December 14 to 18, then 20 and 8 on December 19 and 20,
5 on December 21 and 22, then 8, 10 and 8 on December 23 to 25, 5 on
December 26 through January 5, 2021, then 10 and 8 on January 6 to
7, 5 on January 8 to 13, then 12, 20 and 8 on January 14 to 16, 5 on
January 17 and 18, then 8, 10 and 8 on January 19 to 21, and 5 on
January 22 to 24.

You can get daily updates of these numbers, usually after 2120 UTC,
from ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .

A coronal mass ejection on December 7 was expected to spark a
geomagnetic storm on December 10 and 11, which is why the planetary
A index was predicted at 40, 25, 8 and 8 on December 10 to 13. But
this was revised to the forecast of December 10 shown above.

Check https://bit.ly/2KbZsI7 for a story from Minnesota Public Radio
on what happened, and how we missed the storm.

The ARRL 10 meter contest is this weekend, much anticipated because
of recent increased solar activity. I was concerned about the
forecast from earlier in the week, but now it looks like good
conditions are expected. Around this time each December, there is
possible sporadic-E activity, and enhancement from the Geminids
meteor shower. This year the shower does not peak til the day after
the contest, December 14. But it is already underway.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 11, 2020 to
January 5, 2021 from F. K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: December 13, (29,) January 12, 14
Quiet to unsettled on: December 14 to 16, 21, January 5
Quiet to active on: December 12, 17 and 18, 22 and 23, 26, 30
Unsettled to active: December (11, 24,) 25 and 26, (27,) 31,
(January 3)
Active to disturbed: December 19 (-20,) 28

Solar wind will intensify on: December (11, 19,) 20 to 22, (23,) 27
(28 and 29, January 5)

Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

Max White, M0VNG shared this article about the European Space
Agency's Solar Orbiter: https://bit.ly/342Qvbd

Tony Dixon, G4CJC compiles a weekly ten meter report. See https://bit.ly/3oIxGlC for the most recent offering.

Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW and her latest forecast:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgB8JxYcQFE

Another article about that optimistic Cycle 25 forecast:

https://bit.ly/37ZqKtI

Big sunspots:

https://bit.ly/374XEK6

Great images showing transition of sunspot group 2786:

https://skyandtelescope.org/online-gallery/transition-of-sunspot-ar2786/

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 3 through 9, 2020 were 40, 38, 42, 25,
35, 11, and 11, with a mean of 28.9. 10.7 cm flux was 102.9, 95.8,
99.9, 90.9, 89.5, 82.4, and 82.1, with a mean of 91.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 2, 5, 6, 3, 5, and 7, with a mean of
4.4. Middle latitude A index was 1, 1, 4, 4, 2, 4, and 6, with a
mean of 3.1.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP51
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 18, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity declined recently, with weekly average daily sunspot
numbers reported in this bulletin slipping from 57.6 to 28.9 and
then 17.4 over this past week.

Solar flux averages also slipped from 108.1 in bulletin ARLP049 to
91.9 in ARLP050 to 82.1 over the most recent week.

The latest solar flux prediction also appears soft. Solar flux is
expected to peak at 86 on December 26-28, hit a low at 82 on January
1-10, then peak again at 86 on January 21-24.

Predicted values over the next 45 days are 82 on December 18-24, 83
on December 25, 86 on December 26-28, then 85, 84 and 83 on December
29-31, 82 on January 1, 2021 through January 10, then 83, 83 and 84
on January 11-13, 85 on January 14-20, 86 on January 21-24, then 85,
84 and 83 on January 25-27, and 82 on January 28-31.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 18-20, then 12 on
December 21, 8 on December 22-25, 5 on December 26, 2020 through
January 4, 2021, then 10 on January 5-6, 5 on January 7-12, 8 on
January 13, 5 on January 14-16, then 10, 12 and 10 on January 17-19,
8 on January 20-21, and 5 on January 22-31.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 18, 2020 to
January 12, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: December 28, January 4, 12
quiet to unsettled on: December 23, 29, 31, January 1, 3-4
quiet to active on: December 18, 24-27, 30, January 6, 8, 10-11
unsettled to active: December 19, 22, January 2, 5, 7, 9
active to disturbed: December 20-21

"Solar wind will intensify on: December (20,) 21 (-23, 25,) 27, (28-29,) (January 1-3, 7-8).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."

I noticed after last weekend's ARRL 10 Meter Contest, K7RL claimed
an impressive score of 379,680. Then I checked his page on QRZ.com.
Not only is he surrounded by salt water on an island in Puget Sound,
but check out that amazing collection of steel and aluminum in the
air!

He commented to the Western Washington DX Club email list, "That was
much more fun than expected. Every contest has that moment when an
interesting mult calls in, or you hit a great opening. My moment was
being called by ZD7BG on SSB.

"When the big openings hit both days, you had to be ready to step on
the gas and run like crazy because it could end just as quickly.
There was always some activity, it was mostly a matter of volume and
signal strength. Some signals lasted seconds, if even that, while
others were there almost all weekend like KV0Q and K0RF."

Another impressive effort, but on a much different scale, was
K6ARK's solo SOTA operation:

https://bit.ly/2WrB0FK

The National Science Foundation on a strong Solar Cycle 25:

https://bit.ly/2LL6hkP

Celebrating the return of sunspots in New Zealand:

https://bit.ly/3haNICl

Because this bulletin posts on Fridays, you might think we would
skip the next two issues, which are due on December 25 and January
1. But we won't. Expect both issues on both Fridays. But you won't
see a bulletin preview in the ARRL Letter, which due to the holidays
is suspended until Thursday January 7, 2021.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 10 through 16, 2020 were 11, 11, 24,
14, 25, 25, and 12, with a mean of 17.4. 10.7 cm flux was 81.5,
83.3, 81.8, 80.6, 83, 82.9, and 81.9, with a mean of 82.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 8, 7, 4, 5, 3, 3, and 3, with a mean of
4.7. Middle latitude A index was 6, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, and 3, with a
mean of 3.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP52
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 52 ARLP052
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 28, 2020
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP052
ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

Merry Christmas.

Sunspots went missing last Friday and Saturday, but large new
sunspot group 2794 appeared on Sunday, December 21, and on Wednesday Spaceweather.com reported new sunspot group 2795 emerging over our
Sun's southeastern limb.

This disappearance depressed the average weekly sunspot number,
which went from 17.4 last week to 10.3 this week, ending on
Wednesday, December 23. Our reporting week runs from Thursday
through Wednesday.

In spite of lower sunspot numbers, the average daily solar flux
increased slightly from 82.1 to 82.8.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 4.7 to 7.3, and
average daily middle latitude A index went from 3.3 to 6. These are
still low numbers, indicating quiet geomagnetic conditions, so 160
meter propagation remains good, also aided by lower seasonal
atmospheric noise as winter begins in the Northern Hemisphere.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 88 on December 25 to
30, 86 on December 31, 84 on January 1 to 6, 82 on January 7 to 12,
84 on January 13 to 20, and 86 on January 21 to 23.

Predicted geomagnetic indicators for the same period has planetary A
index at 15 and 8 on December 25 and 26, 5 on December 27 through
January 4, 10 on January 5 and 6, 5 on January 7 to 12, 8 on January
13, 5 on January 14 to 16, then 12, 8 and 18 on January 17 to 19,
then 15, 10, 8 and 3 on January 20 and 23.

The OK1HH geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 25,
2020 til January 19, 2021:

"Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: January 4, 12 to 14
Quiet to unsettled on: December 28 to 31, January 1 to 3, 15
Quiet to active on: December 25 to 27, January 6, 8, 10 and 11, 16
Unsettled to active: January 2, 5, 7, 9, 17, 19
Active to disturbed: January 18

Solar wind will intensify on: December (25,) 27 (28 and 29,)
(January 1 to 3, 7 and 9, 18,) 19

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are
ambiguous and changing indications.

I wish you a blessed Christmas, positive thinking and negative
tests."

Steve, NN4X reported working a VK and a ZL via 15 meter long path
around 1915 UTC on December 23 using FT8. NN4X is in Florida,
southeast of Orlando. His antenna (two stacked 6 element Yagis) is
highly directional, so he has no doubt this was long path. He was
also heard at 3D2 and KH6. He writes, "I've been a ham since 1977,
and this stuff never gets boring."

Check out his impressive array of antennas listed on his QRZ.com
page. He sent a pskreporter screenshot showing he was copied all
over the world, except Asia.

Jeff, N8II wrote on December 19:

"Today, we had 2 contests. The RAC and 9A CW (Croatia, everybody
works everybody). 15 was a bit marginal into western Canada, but I
worked MB, SK, AB, and BC plus several VE3's on backscatter. 15
meters was open to Southern and Central EU at the 1400 UTC 9A CW
start, but with few loud signals. By 1500 UTC most activity
disappeared. 20 meter signals were loud from both eastern and
western Canada and Europe, with the band starting to close around
1615 UTC. My last EU QSOs were with Geoff, GM8OFQ in the Orkney
Islands (S9+10db) and Tom G1IZQ (S9 with QSB) just after 1700 UTC.

Signals from EU have been weaker and openings much shorter on 15
meters in general this past week due to the drop in solar activity.
One day I had a QSO with a loud Norwegian who was S9 around 1400
UTC, but in general most signals have been from southern EU.

Our sunsets are already later here by 3 minutes, but sunrises will
get later until about December 31 due to the elliptical orbit of the
Earth, so openings to the East will get later."

Tamitha Skov's latest: https://bit.ly/3aIEWKq

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive- propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 17 through 23, 2020 were 12, 0, 0, 11,
11, 11, and 27, with a mean of 10.3. 10.7 cm flux was 81.6, 80.5,
81.7, 83.8, 79.6, 85.8, and 86.4, with a mean of 82.8. Estimated
planetary A indices were 2, 3, 5, 4, 12, 13, and 12, with a mean of
7.3. Middle latitude A index was 2, 2, 4, 4, 8, 11, and 11, with a
mean of 6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP01
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 1 ARLP001
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 2, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP001
ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot cycle 25 is progressing normally, and with the new year my
outlook is optimistic. Solar minimum occurred only a bit more than
a year ago (December 2019) and now we see very few days with no
sunspots.

Average daily sunspot number over this past week was 27.1, and a
week ago the average was just 10.3. Average daily solar flux rose
from 82.8 to 86.4.

Predicted solar flux over the next 30 days is 81 and 80 on January 1
and 2, 79 on January 3 and 4, 78 on January 5 to 8, then jumping to
84 on January 9 to 14, then 85, 86 and 87 on January 15 to 17, 88 on
January 18 to 28, 87 on January 29 and 86 on January 30. It then
dips to 84 on February 1 to 10.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 1 and 2, 8 and 5 on
January 3 and 4, 8 on January 5 to 7, 5 on January 8 to 17, 10 on
January 18 to 20, 8 on January 21, 5 on January 22 to 24, 10 on
January 25, and 5 on January 26 to 30.

Both the current sunspot groups (2794 and 2795) are about to slip
across the sun's western horizon.

When I check https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ for any possible coming
activity, I don't see anything obvious, but do not be surprised if
new activity appears soon, perhaps before mid-January along with the
predicted higher flux values.

From OK1HH:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 1 to 26, 2021

Geomagnetic field will be
Quiet on: January 1, 3, 13 and 14
Quiet to unsettled on: January 2, 4, 8, 10, 12, 15 and 16, 21, 25
and 26
Quiet to active on: January 5 to 7, 9, 11, 17, 22 and 23
Unsettled to active: January 20, 24
Active to disturbed: January 18 and 19

Solar wind will intensify on: (January 1 to 3, 7 to 9, 19 and 20,)
21 and 22, (23, 25 and 26)

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are
ambiguous and changing indications.

Wishing Happy New Year, positive thinking and negative tests.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH from Czech Propagation Interested Group compiling
these geomagnetic activity weekly forecasts since January 1978".

Ted Leaf, K6HI of Kona, Hawaii sent this, another optimistic report
on new cycle 25:

https://bit.ly/2XdqaUd

More on the NCAR prediction and the solar clock:

https://bit.ly/2MkHVyt

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 24 through 30, 2020 were 25, 30, 31,
26, 26, 26, and 26, with a mean of 27.1. 10.7 cm flux was 87.4,
87.7, 87.9, 87.8, 87.2, 84.2, and 82.8, with a mean of 86.4.
Estimated planetary A indices were 10, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, and 9, with a
mean of 6.9. Middle latitude A index was 7, 4, 3, 4, 6, 5, and 6,
with a mean of 5.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP02
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 2 ARLP002
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 8, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP002
ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots disappeared after January 2, so the average daily sunspot
number dropped from 27.1 last week to 10 for this reporting week,
December 31 through January 6.

As a result, average daily solar flux declined as well, from 86.4 to
78.6.

Geomagnetic indicators remain quiet, with planetary A index changing
from 6.9 to 5.1, and middle latitude numbers from 5 to 4.

This decline was unexpected, and of course we would rather see more
and more sunspots as Solar Cycle 25 progresses, but this is normal. We
expect much variability in any sunspot cycle.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days looks depressed, far
different from the high 80s we saw around Christmas. Solar flux is
expected at 74 on January 8-15, 80 on January 16, 82 on January
17-27, 80 on January 28-31, and 78 on February 1-6. Flux values may
rise to 82 around mid-February.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on January 8-9, 8 on January
10-11, 5 on January 12-16, 10 on January 17-20, 5 on January 21-24,
8 on January 25-26, 5 on January 27-31, then 10, 10 and 8 on
February 1-3, and 5 on February 4-5. A index may rise to 10 by
mid-February.

This prediction, prepared by the US Air Force, is updated daily,
usually after 2120 UTC, and can be found at, ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 8 to February
3, 2021 from OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be,

quiet on: January 10, 12-14, 22, 30-31

quiet to unsettled on: January 11, 23, 27-29, February 1

quiet to active on: January 8, 15-16, 21, 24-26

unsettled to active: January 9, 17, 19-20, February 3

active to disturbed: January 18, February 2

Solar wind will intensify on: (January 8-9, 15-17, 19-20,) 21 (- 22,
(23, 25-26,) February 2-3.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are ambiguous and
changing indications. Including rapidly emerging and disappearing
narrow bands of solar coronal holes."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.

For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for December 31, 2020 through January 6, 2021 were
25, 23, 22, 0, 0, 0, and 0, with a mean of 10. 10.7 cm flux was
81.2, 80.4, 81.5, 80.4, 77.6, 75.1, and 74.1, with a mean of 78.6.
Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 2, 2, 3, 11, and 11, with a
mean of 5.1. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 1, 1, 3, 9, and 9,
with a mean of 4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3 ARLP003
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 15, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

What happened? Solar Cycle 25 seemed well underway, but no new
sunspots emerged since last year prior to Christmas, on December 23,
2020 to be exact. The last time any sunspot was visible was on
January 2. On January 14, Spaceweather.com posted, "Welcome back,
solar minimum."

Average daily solar flux declined from 78.6 to 73.8. Geomagnetic A
index remained quiet.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 74, 74 and 75 on
January 15-17, 80 on January 18-21, then 78 on January 22-27, 77 on
January 28-31, 75 on February 1-6, and 74 on February 7-13. Flux is
expected to peak at 78 again after February 14.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 15-16, then 10, 12, 10
and 8 on January 17-20, 5 on January 21-24, 8 on January 25-26, 5 on
January 27-31, 10 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-12 and 10 on
February 13.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 15 to February
10, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: January 22, 28-30, February 4, 10
quiet to unsettled on: January 23, 25, 27, February 5-6, 9
quiet to active on: January 15-16, 21, 24, 26, 31, February 1, 3
unsettled to active: January 17-20, February 2, 7-8
active to disturbed: none predicted

"Solar wind will intensify on January (19-20,) 21, (25-27, 31)
February (1,) 2-3.

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

"The predictability of changes is lower again, as there are
ambiguous and changing indications."

Peering at STEREO spacecraft images via
https://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ I see a bright spot due to cross a few
days from now, so perhaps that indicates a new sunspot over the
solar horizon. But I have been fooled by bright spots on STEREO in
the past which did not emerge as sunspots.

Jon Jones, N0JK reports E-skip on 6 meters:

"Sporadic-E on 50 MHz dropped off after the first week of January.
There was a sporadic-E opening I found January 10 with K8TB (EN72)
in on FT8 at 1937 UTC.

"On January 14 a rare and unusual opening on 6 meters occurred
between New England, VE1 and Europe. DK8NW and DK1MAX were spotted
at 1415 UTC by WW1L (FN54). HA2NP was spotted by VE1P UTC (FN85) at
1436 UTC. VE1PZ was spotted by OH6MW at 1430 UTC calling CQ on
50.313 MHz FT8.

"Propagation mode unclear but probably multi-hop sporadic-E. Solar
flux only 73, unlikely to be F2."

A few days ago Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, posted this video:

https://youtu.be/x07w9xAqCSw .

K9LA gave an excellent presentation on propagation for the Madison
DX Club on Tuesday, and the video will appear here shortly:

http://www.madisondxclub.org/MDXC_Programs.html

Until then, you can also watch a November presentation on Solar
Cycle 25 by Dr. Douglas Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather
Prediction Center via that same link.

More speculation about Solar Cycle 25:

https://www.universetoday.com/149468/will-solar-cycle-25-dazzle-or- fizzle-in-2021/

(above URL all on one line)

WB8VLC in Salem, Oregon (CN84lv) sent an extensive listing of DX
worked over the past few months, none of it using FT8, just SSB and
CW. Recently on January 10 using a home made Moxon antenna at 24
feet on 17 meters he worked TZ4AM on CW in Mali at 1903 UTC with 599
signals both ways, and a few minutes earlier at 1857 UTC on SSB he
worked V51WH in Namibia, with S9 signals which persisted for 2
hours.

Back in late November on 10 meter FM he worked Brazil, Costa Rica
and Jamaica.

He wrote, "I like to promote the upper bands 10 and 12 meters to
show that they are open more often than one would think."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 7 through 13, 2021 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 74.6, 75.2, 74.2, 73.1,
73.2, 72.8, and 73.2, with a mean of 73.8. Estimated planetary A
indices were 6, 2, 3, 3, 14, 9, and 4, with a mean of 5.9. Middle
latitude A index was 4, 1, 2, 3, 10, 8, and 3, with a mean of 4.4.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP04
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 4 ARLP004
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 22, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP004
ARLP004 Propagation de K7RA

We just witnessed twelve consecutive days with no sunspots, which
many of us found a bit unsettling. But fortunately Solar Cycle 25
activity returned with new sunspot 2796 on January 15. Instead of
moving from the east across the solar horizon, it emerged in the
southern hemisphere, just west of center.

Currently we are seeing sunspot regions 2797 and 2798, which emerged
in the southeast, and looking at images from the STEREO spacecraft,
I see another bright spot on the horizon.

Average daily sunspot number increased from 0 last week to 14.7
in this reporting period, January 14-20.

Average daily solar flux rose from 73.8 to 76.1, and geomagnetic
indicators sank to very quiet levels. Average daily planetary A
index dropped from 5.9 to 4, and average daily middle latitude A
index from 4.4 to 3.

The outlook for the next month looks good. Predicted daily solar
flux for the next 30 days is 80 on January 22-28, 75 on January 29
to February 3, 76 from February 4-10, 77 from February 11-17, and 76
on February 18-20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on January 22-26, 8 on January
27-28, 5 on January 29-31, 10 on February 1-2, 5 on February 3-13,
then 10, 10, 12 and 10 on February 14-17, and 5 on February 18-20.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 22 to February
17, 2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be,
quiet on: January 22, 28-30, February 4, 10
quiet to unsettled on: January 23, 27, February 5-6, 9-13, 17
quiet to active on: January 24-26, 31, February 1, 3, 7, 14-16
unsettled to active: February 2, 8
active to disturbed: none

"Solar wind will intensify on: January (25-27, 31,) February (1,)
2-3, (4, 8-10, 15-16).

"- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

"- Now the predictability of changes is much lower than before, as
there are very ambiguous indications.

"- This forecast was made on the 21st day, the 21st year of the 21st
century and is valid since 21:21 UTC."

Ken, N4SO in Grand Bay, Alabama reports good results running 1-watt
and an inverted vee on 80 meter CW. On January 15 at 0730 UTC he
worked V31MA in Belize. He is having fun late nights on 30 meters
running FT8 and making worldwide contacts.

Check https://bit.ly/39SXS75 for the recent propagation talk by K9LA
at the Madison DX Club.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 14 through 20, 2021 were 0, 13, 15, 23,
13, 14, and 25, with a mean of 14.7. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 73.4,
77.7, 77.2, 75.3, 78.1, and 77.2, with a mean of 76.1. Estimated
planetary A indices were 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 6, and 6, with a mean of 4.
Middle latitude A index was 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 6, and 5, with a mean of
3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP05
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA January 29, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP005
ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA

Solar activity increased this week. We saw no spotless days, and
the average daily sunspot number rose from 14.7 to 28.1. Average daily
solar flux was up from 76.1 to 77.2.

Average daily planetary A index rose from 4 to 9.4 due to a minor
geomagnetic storm on Monday. On that day Alaska's High Latitude
College A index was 33.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 76, 75, 74 and 74 on
January 29 Through February 1, then 72, 70, 70 and 72 on February
2-5, 76 on February 6-10, 77 on February 11-20, 76 on February
21-24, 75 on February 25-27.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 5 and 8 on January 29-31, then 18,
12 and 8 on February 1-3, 5 on February 4-6, 10 on February 7-8, 5
on February 9-19, then 8, 12 and 12 on February 20-22, and 5 on
February 23-27.

Even after a nice stretch of days with sunspots, 10.7 cm solar flux
seems weak. Last week and this week we reported average daily solar
flux of 73.8 and 78.6. But toward the end of 2020, the three
bulletins reporting data from November 19 through December 9 had
average daily solar flux at 90.1, 108.1 and 91.9.

On Thursday Spaceweather.com reported a sunspot number of 26 and
showed an image of two active regions on the Sun, 2800 and 2797, but
NOAA SESC showed a sunspot number of 0 for the same day, reported
at, ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/DSD.txt .

Perhaps this will be corrected after this bulletin is released. That
DSD.txt file is the only source used for sunspot numbers reported in
this bulletin.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 29 to February
24, 2021 from F.K Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: January 29-31, February 4, 10, (24)
quiet to unsettled on: February 5-6, 9-13, 17, 19
quiet to active on: February 1, 3, 7, 14-16, 18, 20, 22-23
unsettled to active: February (2, 8, 21)
active to disturbed: none predicted

"Solar wind will intensify on January (31,) February (1,) 2-3, (4,
8-10, 15-17, 20-21,) 22-24, (25).

"Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement. The predictability of changes remains low, as indicators are ambiguous."

An article about tree rings as an indicator of historical solar
activity can be found online at:

https://bit.ly/2YorDYf

This weekend is the CW portion of the CQ 160 meter contest.
Geomagnetic activity is quite low, which is a favorable indication
for 160 meters. See https://www.cq160.com/ for rules.

Imagine, if you will, the worst possible solar flare, maybe worse
than the infamous Carrington Event, the one that made aurora visible
all the way down to the equator and set fire to telegraph offices.
Some smart people have done just that. Try not to scare yourself:

https://bit.ly/3t3TxXv

Check out last weekend's Propagation Summit:

https://bit.ly/3r0G6Wv

Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, has a new mini-course:

https://bit.ly/36mbgj4

KA3JAW enjoys monitoring the FM broadcast band and the 11 meter band
for E-skip. He reported from Pennsylvania:

"Nothing heard on the FM band, but Monday, January 25th was a great
radio day for both single-hop and double-hop sporadic-E (Es) on 11
meters.

"The spectacular event started early in the morning, 6:45 AM (1145
UTC) till late afternoon - 4:54 PM (2154 UTC).

"It all began with reception of short-hop Es into southern Maine at 7
AM. Signal was 20dB over S9 at a range of 300+ miles.

"At 2 PM, double-hop Es western stations were heard, AZ, CA, UT, WA
and Alberta, Canada.

"And if that was not enough, I was hearing west coast stations
calling out to HI.

"Around 3:45 PM, western states, southern Texas (Houston, San
Antonio, Waco) along with Florida (Tampa) were heard.

"Twenty-one states, two Canadian and one Mexican station were heard:

"AL, AZ, CA, CT, FL, GA, IA, IN, KY, LA, ME, MI, MS, NC, OH, SC, TN,
TX, UT, VA, and WA.

"In Canada: Ontario, Alberta.

"In Mexico: Tijuana."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 21 through 27, 2021 were 26, 39, 34, 23,
26, 23, and 26, with a mean of 28.1. 10.7 cm flux was 77.6, 78.2,
77.9, 77.6, 77.1, 75.7, and 76.3, with a mean of 77.2. Estimated
planetary A indices were 3, 4, 5, 5, 17, 21, and 11, with a mean of
9.4. Middle latitude A index was 2, 3, 3, 4, 14, 9, and 9, with a
mean of 6.3.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
þ Synchronet þ Eye of The Hurricane BBS - hurrican.synchro.net

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP06
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 6 ARLP006
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 5, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP006
ARLP006 Propagation de K7RA

We just witnessed five days in a row with zero sunspots, but on
February 2 a small sunspot group (2801) appeared on our Sun's
northwest limb. It soon rotated off the Sun's visible area, and on
Thursday the sunspot number was back to 0.

We will probably see a few more days with no sunspots, but a return
after February 11 is possible when increased solar flux is forecast.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 28.1 reported in last
week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP005 to 3.3 this week.
Average daily solar flux dropped three points from 77.2 to 74.2.

Average daily planetary A index went from 9.4 to 6.7.

Solar flux over the next 30 days is predicted at 74 on February
5-11, 76 on February 12-16, 78 on February 17-22, 76 on February
23-25, 74 on February 26, 73 on February 27 through March 1, and 72
on March 2-7.

Predicted planetary A index is 5, 8, 16 and 10 on February 5-8, then
8 on February 9-10, 5 on February 11-20, then 20, 16 and 12 on
February 21-23, 5 on February 24-27, then 18, 12 and 8 on February
28 through March 2, 5 on March 3-5, and 10 on March 6-7. A coronal
hole may return on March 20-21 causing a rising A index.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 5 to March 2,
2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be,
quiet on: February 18-19, 26-27
quiet to unsettled on: February 5-6, 9-13, 17, 24-25
quiet to active on: February 7-8, 14-16, 20, 23, 28
unsettled to active: February 21-22, March 1-2
active to disturbed: nothing predicted

"Solar wind will intensify on: February (8-10, 15-17, 20-22,) 23-24,
(25-28).

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Predictability of changes remains low, as indications remain
ambiguous."

N0JK reported, "Had some sporadic-E on 50 MHz the evening of
February 1 (February 2 UTC). XE2TT (DL44) on 50.313 MHz, 0205 UTC. I
was on Saturday night for a couple of hours January 31 UTC for the
CQ 160 M CW contest. Band noisy due to snow and high winds in
eastern Kansas. Made over 50 contacts with 5 watts and a rain gutter
antenna."

More from Jon the next day:

"Some sporadic-E on 6 Meters February 2, 3 and 4. Es is rare in
February. I worked WA2VJL (EL16) on 50.313 MHz FT8 from my mobile
set up on the 2nd. See below.

"N0LL (EM09) is back on 6 Meters after repairing storm damage to his
antenna. On February 3 Larry worked XE2ML on 6 Meters. VK3OER in
Australia spotted K0TPP in Missouri! Possible sporadic-E-TEP across
the Pacific Ocean.

"XE2ML 21/02/04 0010Z 50313.0 EM09<ES>DL74 N0LL
N0LL 21/02/04 0009Z 50313.0 DL74QB EM09 TNX qso 7 XE2ML

"Had some Es when I checked from my car at work. Decoded XE2OR,
N7WB/p, K0JY, and XE2ML.

"N7WB/P 21/02/03 2354Z 50313.0 EM28IX ES DM51BI N0JK

"VK3OER spotted K0TPP!

"K0TPP 21/02/04 0036Z 50313.0 -16 CQ K0TPP correct! VK3OER"

In response to last week's bulletin and the subject of super-huge
solar flares, Jon commented: "The VHF community is ready. Bring it
on!"

Article about solar magnetic waves and corona composition:

https://bit.ly/3pRz5Hv

The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:

https://bit.ly/39P9r0o

An audio tour of the Sunspot, New Mexico solar observatory:

https://bit.ly/39QVAGS

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for January 28 through February 3, 2021 were 0, 0,
0, 0, 0, 12, and 11, with a mean of 3.3. 10.7 cm flux was 75.6,
75.5, 73.7, 73.4, 73.7, 72.9, and 74.3, with a mean of 74.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 3, 2, 1, 5, 17, and 14, with a
mean of 6.7. Middle latitude A index was 3, 2, 2, 0, 4, 11, and 10,
with a mean of 4.6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
* Origin: The Thunderbolt BBS - tbolt.synchro.net (57:57/10)
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SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP07
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA February 12, 2021
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP007
ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots are gone, with none seen since February 2 and 3. So there
were no sunspots from January 28 through February 1, then again none
after February 3.

Spaceweather.com reported on Wednesday a small proto-sunspot
struggling to form, but by Thursday it was gone.

They also report 57% of the days so far in 2021 are spotless. This
is the same as the percentage of spotless days in all of 2020.

Average daily solar flux was 72.8 over this reporting week, with
last week's average at 74.2. Average planetary A index increased
from 6.7 to 7.7, and average daily middle latitude A index rose from
4.6 to 6. These are still low, quiet numbers, quite favorable for
conditions on 80 and 160 meters, particularly during winter.

Predicted solar flux for the next 30 days is 75 on February 12-19,
78 on February 20-22, 76 on February 23-25, 74 on February 26, 73 on
February 27 through March 1, 72 on March 2-7, 74 on March 8-10, and
76 on March 11-13.

Flux values may rise to 78 again after the middle of March, just
before Spring Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere, which occurs on
March 20.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 12-14, then 22 and 14
on February 15-16, 5 on February 17-20, then 20, 16 and 12 on
February 21-23, 5 on February 24-28, then 18 and 14 on March 1-2, 5
on March 3-4, then 8, 20 and 10 on March 5-7, and 5 on March 8-13.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period February 12 to March 9,
2021 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
quiet on: February 12, 18-19, 25-27, March 5, 8-9.
quiet to unsettled on: February 13, 17, 24, March 3-4, 7.
quiet to active on: February 14-16, 20, 23, 28, March 6.
unsettled to active: February 21-22, March 1-2.
active to disturbed: none predicted.

"Solar wind will intensify on: February (15-17, 21-22,) 23-24,
(25-26,) March 2-4.

"-Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
-Predictability of changes remains low, as there are very ambiguous indications."

Thank you to Jon Jones, N0JK for this info on personal space weather
stations and a network tying them together:

https://bit.ly/3aZPpje

https://bit.ly/2MYSk3B

Jon, who is in Eastern Kansas (EM28) also reported 6 meter
sporadic-E activity:

"Major 6 Meter Es opening across North America February 7-8 UTC. Es
first spotted around 1430 UTC and lasted until 0440 UTC.

"From Kansas had Texas in on Es around 1620 UTC.

"Later XE2ML (DL74) and XE2JS (DL78) at 2220 UTC.

"New Zealand was copied by stations in New England and W5LDA (EM15)
in Oklahoma was received by ZL1RS on 3 FT8 sequences."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
please email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net .

For more information concerning radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins .

Sunspot numbers for February 4 through 10, 2021 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, and 0, with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 73.9, 72.8, 72.5, 73.2,
73.6, 70, and 73.7, with a mean of 72.8. Estimated planetary A
indices were 7, 6, 7, 21, 6, 4, and 3, with a mean of 7.7. Middle
latitude A index was 7, 3, 4, 18, 6, 3, and 1, with a mean of 6.
NNNN
/EX
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Win32
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